Forex News Timeline

Friday, May 16, 2025

The Mexican Peso (MXN) depreciated against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after the Banco de Mexico (Banxico) reduced rates as expected, amid weaker-than-expected economic data from the United States (US). At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.49, up 0.61%.

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At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.49, up 0.61%.Recently, Banxico lowered its interest rate by 50 basis points (bps), as expected, to 8.50%, marking the seventh consecutive rate cut by the Mexican institution. The central bank’s decision was unanimous and weighed on the Mexican currency, which, since the beginning of the North American session, was losing ground against the Greenback.In the US, inflation data on the producer side showed that the disinflation process continued in April, indicating progress despite trade policies implemented by President Donald Trump keeping investors uncertain about the global economic outlook.Further data revealed that consumer spending is cooling, as shown by April’s Retail Sales, and that the labor market remains solid, following the latest release of Initial Jobless Claims figures.In the US, the economic docket will feature the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment poll for June.Daily digest market movers: Banxico’s decision tumbles the PesoBanxico reduced interest rates as expected, with unanimous support. In its policy statement, the central bank stated that it would continue to “calibrate” monetary policy, anticipating that the current inflationary environment would allow it to continue the easing cycle.Mexico’s central bank statement added that cuts by the same magnitude are on the table, and despite upward revising their inflation projections, the board expects headline prices to converge to the 3% goal by Q3 2026.Officials at Banxico added that the changes in economic policy by the US administration have introduced uncertainty to the forecasts.The interest rate differential between Mexico and the US is reducing. Therefore, Banxico’s dovish stance could cap Peso’s advance and exert upward pressure on the USD/MXN pair.Goldman Sachs has upwardly revised Mexico’s economic growth for 2025 to 0% from the previously projected 0.5% contraction.Recently, Mexico’s Economy Minister, Marcelo Ebrard, announced that the USMCA revision will commence in the second half of 2025.Notably, investors reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will only cut rates twice this year, rather than three times, as indicated by data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).The December 2025 fed funds rates futures contract shows that market players expect 54 basis points of easing.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso treads water, with USD/MXN poised to test 19.50The USD/MXN downtrend paused as the pair edged up before and after the Banxico decision. Nevertheless, failure to achieve a daily close above 19.50 could pave the way for a Mexican Peso recovery, which could send the pair drifting toward the 19.00 figure.Once that level is taken out, the next support would be August 19, 2024, swing low of 18.59. Conversely, if USD/MXN climbs past the 19.50 area and reaches a three-day high of 19.66, surpassing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), it may retreat somewhat. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The AUD/NZD pair remained stable around the 1.0900 zone on Thursday, reflecting a cautiously bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session.

AUD/NZD trades around the 1.0900 zone with minimal movements on Thursday.Mixed signals from momentum indicators as overbought conditions emerge.Key support sits below, while resistance levels cluster around recent highs.The AUD/NZD pair remained stable around the 1.0900 zone on Thursday, reflecting a cautiously bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session. Price action remains within the middle of its daily range, suggesting that buyers are still in control, but the emergence of overbought conditions across several momentum indicators raises the risk of a short-term correction.From a technical perspective, the pair presents a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index hovers in the 60s, indicating generally neutral momentum without immediate overbought pressure, though nearing a potentially overextended zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence supports the broader uptrend with a clear buy signal, aligning with the short-term moving averages like the 10-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages, which also favor further gains.However, the Williams Percent Range (14) and Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) both trade in overbought territory, suggesting a possible near-term pullback if recent gains cannot be sustained. The Ultimate Oscillator, trading in the 60s, adds to the cautious tone, highlighting the risk of a corrective move despite the broader bullish backdrop.In terms of support and resistance, the short-term structure remains constructive, with key support levels identified near 1.0870 and 1.0859. Immediate resistance sits around 1.0916, 1.0924, and 1.0946. A clear break above these resistance levels could confirm a broader bullish continuation, while a failure to hold current levels might trigger a deeper correction toward the lower end of the recent range.Daily Chart

The AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.6400 zone, retreating from earlier highs as the US Dollar regains strength.

AUD/USD trades near 0.6400, giving back early session gains after strong Australian jobs data.US Dollar steadies as DXY holds just below 101.00 amid mixed economic data.Technical signals remain mixed, with neutral RSI and conflicting SMA trends around key levels.The AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.6400 zone, retreating from earlier highs as the US Dollar regains strength. This pullback follows a solid Australian labor market report, which showed a robust 89,000 jobs gain in April, significantly exceeding the 22,500 expected and marking a sharp recovery from the prior month. Despite this, the Australian Dollar struggled to maintain momentum as broader market sentiment turned cautious ahead of US economic data releases, including Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures.Fundamentally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure, trading just below 101.00. US data this week painted a mixed picture, with Retail Sales rising just 0.1% in April and the PPI cooling to 2.4% annually, both missing expectations. Additionally, weekly jobless claims held steady at 229K, reflecting a stable yet cautious labor market. These figures suggest that while the US economy remains resilient, growth momentum is slowing, keeping the Greenback within a tight range.Technical AnalysisTechnically, AUD/USD signals remain mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 50, reflecting neutral conditions. The MACD suggests selling momentum, aligning with the short-term bias, while Momentum (10) also leans bearish. The Stochastic RSI Fast in the 30s and the Ultimate Oscillator around the 40s further reinforce this neutral to slightly bearish tone. Key support levels are found at 0.6400, 0.6398, and 0.6378, while immediate resistance lies at 0.6412, 0.6414, and 0.6419. The 20-day SMA supports the selling bias, while the 100-day SMA offers a more bullish signal, indicating a complex technical outlook.With the market still digesting mixed US data and awaiting further guidance from the Federal Reserve, AUD/USD may struggle to break out of its current range, especially if US economic releases continue to highlight a cooling but resilient economy.Daily Chart

The NZD/JPY cross is trading near the 85.50 zone on Thursday, down approximately 1% as it sits mid-range within its recent fluctuation ahead of the Asian session.

NZD/JPY trades near the 85.50 zone, reflecting a bearish tone with minor losses.Momentum is mixed, with short-term buy signals clashing with broader selling pressure.Key support rests around 85.50, with resistance near 85.60 and 86.10.The NZD/JPY cross is trading near the 85.50 zone on Thursday, down approximately 1% as it sits mid-range within its recent fluctuation ahead of the Asian session. Despite the broader bearish tone, conflicting technical signals suggest the cross may face further volatility in the near term, with mixed momentum indicators adding to the uncertain outlook.From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 50s, reflecting neutral momentum as recent gains and losses balance each other out. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals ongoing buy momentum, providing a short-term counter to the broader bearish sentiment. However, the Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) remains in the 40s, while the Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) trades in the 60s, both reinforcing a more neutral tone.Momentum (10) stands out as a more direct bearish signal, aligning with the overall negative trend. This is further supported by the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which indicate ongoing selling pressure, despite the 20-day SMA suggesting a potential short-term recovery. Additionally, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA, both in the 80s, also align with the sell side, reinforcing the cautious outlook for the cross.Immediate support is identified around 85.57, followed by deeper levels at 85.49 and 85.42. On the upside, resistance is expected near 85.63, with stronger barriers at 85.69 and 86.09, potentially capping gains in the near term.Daily Chart

South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) fell from previous 6.3% to 0.7% in April

South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY) down to -2.3% in April from previous 3.4%

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