Forex News Timeline

23:39 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Drops toward 94.20 area as bearish pressure mounts
The AUD/JPY pair extended its decline on Friday, hovering near the 94.30 zone after the European session and slipping closer to the lower end of its intraday range.

AUD/JPY was seen near the 94.30 zone on Friday ahead of the Asian session, retreating toward the lower end of its daily range.Despite mixed signals from oscillators, moving averages tilt the broader technical bias to the downside.Support lies near 94.00 and 93.88, while resistance is seen just above 94.40; indicators remain conflicted with bearish lean.The AUD/JPY pair extended its decline on Friday, hovering near the 94.30 zone after the European session and slipping closer to the lower end of its intraday range. The pair is down notably on the day, reflecting an increase in selling interest. While some momentum indicators remain neutral or even slightly constructive, broader technical signals continue to favor a bearish bias for the near term. Looking at the indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below 50, yet neutral in tone, while the MACD posts a slight buy signal , hinting at possible short-term correction. However, the Bull Bear Power stands at 0.641, reinforcing the underlying selling pressure, and the Williams Percent Range remains neutral, failing to offer a clear reversal signal. Moving averages present a split picture. The short-term 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 94.02 continues to signal a buy, offering dynamic support. However, the 10-day EMA (94.45) and SMA (94.58), along with the 100-day (96.85) and 200-day (98.70) SMAs, all lean bearish, suggesting that upside potential remains capped unless a structural shift occurs. In terms of levels, immediate support emerges at 94.16, followed by 94.02 and 93.88. On the flip side, resistance is seen around 94.35, 94.42, and 94.45—just ahead of key short-term moving averages that could act as selling zones if bulls attempt to regain control. AUD/JPY daily chart

23:00 Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos: -95.31B (February) vs previous -19.42B
Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos: -95.31B (February) vs previous -19.42B

22:57 Australian Dollar stuck near 0.6300 as PCE data fails to shift sentiment
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains directionless during Friday’s American session, with AUD/USD hovering around the 0.6300 zone.

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The release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index failed to generate significant market reaction, as the figures aligned with expectations except for the core PCE, which ticked slightly higher than forecasts. The Aussie struggled to gain ground despite weaker demand for the US Dollar, as caution persists over trade tensions and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) uncertain policy outlook. Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar steady after uneventful US PCE print AUD/USD continued to range around the 0.6300 zone following the release of the February PCE inflation data, which came broadly in line with market forecasts. San Francisco Fed President Daly reiterated that two rate cuts remain likely in 2025, but emphasized the need for patience as inflation and tariffs evolve. Broader risk sentiment was weighed down by fresh US auto tariffs and the looming April 2 deadline for reciprocal trade measures. The Australian Dollar remained vulnerable, with risk appetite softening and demand for safe-haven assets—like Gold—rising to new all-time highs. Markets continue to anticipate a rate cut from the Fed later this year, but near-term bets remain cautious amid mixed economic signals. Hopes for additional economic stimulus from China helped limit losses in the Aussie, given Australia’s strong export ties to the Chinese market. Despite the Fed’s cautious stance, the US Dollar lacked conviction as traders shifted focus toward macro risks and geopolitical developments. The US Dollar Index remains capped below key resistance at 105.00, with technicals suggesting range-bound movement in the near term. Investor positioning remains net short on AUD, with bearish bets building amid prolonged global trade and inflation uncertainty. Technical analysis The AUD/USD pair struggled to find traction following the PCE data, remaining locked in a narrow range around the 0.6300 zone. While the inflation report failed to surprise, the pair still declined modestly, reflecting lingering bearish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped further into the lower neutral band, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram printed a fresh red bar, reinforcing downside risks. Bearish signals also emerged from Momentum and Bull Bear Power indicators. The short-term 10-day and 20-day moving averages now act as immediate resistance, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain firmly bearish. Key support levels lie at 0.6295 and 0.6294, while resistance is noted at 0.6297 and 0.6303. Without a decisive break, the pair is likely to remain confined in this consolidation phase into next week. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

22:22 Canadian Dollar roils as Trump reiterates tariff threats
The Canadian Dollar was dragged in both directions on Friday, rising and then falling as market flows clash with fresh threats of tariffs on Canada from US President Donald Trump.

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Market sentiment is evaporating as the Trump administration barrels toward its self-imposed deadline of April 2 for a wide package of ever-changing tariffs that still remain light on firm details. Friday was heavy on the US side of the economic data docket, with core US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation rising in February, crippling rate cut hopes and also flashing warning signs that inflation may remain above targets for far longer than expected. US consumer sentiment measures also tumbled as consumer turn increasingly negative on the Trump administration’s handling of the economy in general, and more specifically international trade. Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar whipsaws as tariff threats weigh on Loonie The Canadian Dollar rose early on Friday after the Greenback declined, before slumping back after President Trump reiterates his intent to go through with tariffs on Canada. US core PCE Price Index inflation ticked higher in February, climbing to 2.8% YoY. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fall to a two-year low at 57.0, and UoM Consumer 5-year Inflation Expectations also climbed again to 4.1%. Despite deteriorating consumer sentiment, and inflation figures already beginning to rise in anticipation of tariffs, President Trump took the time to insist that he will be going ahead with sweeping tariffs on Canada. Next week will be a slow burn as investors keep an eye on trade headlines in the runup to the Trump administration’s April 2 tariff deadline. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Canadian labor figures are also due next Friday. Canadian Dollar price forecast The Canadian Dollar continues to grind through a rough consolidation phase that has stretched on for months. USD/CAD has returned to familiar technical levels just above 1.4300, with bids mired in the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4320. USD/CAD daily chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

22:19 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD pulls back from 5-month peak, bears eye $34
Silver price hits a five-month high but retreats toward the $34 figure late on Friday, as traders brace for the weekend, eyeing a busy economic schedule in the United States (US).

22:04 Gold price hits new record high near $3,090 as Fed cut bets defy trade war fears
Gold price rallied sharply on Friday, hitting a new record high of $3,086 amid uncertainty over US trade policy, alongside an uptick in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.

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After this, traders seem confident that the Fed will cut rates twice in 2025. The XAU/USD trades at 3079, up 0.79%. The market mood is pessimistic as traders brace for April 2, the so-called “Liberation Day” by US President Donald Trump, who signed an executive order applying 25% tariffs on all cars imported to the US. This triggered reactions worldwide, primarily in Canada and the European Union (EU), which has begun preparing to retaliate against this measure. In the meantime, the Greenback remains battered and is set to finish the week with losses of 0.11%, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which underpins the prices of precious metals. US yields are also dropping as investors seeking safety piled into Bullion and the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US economic calendar revealed that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in February was mostly aligned with forecasts, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey in March deteriorated further. Aside from this, San Francisco Fed Mary Daly stated that she foresees two rate cuts in 2025, adding recently that she is focused 100% on inflation due to progress being flat. Meanwhile, money markets have priced in 73.5 basis points of Fed easing in 2025, jumping ten basis points from the previous day, according to Prime Market Terminal interest rate probabilities. Source: Prime Market Terminal Next week, the US economic docket will feature the April 2 Trump tariff announcement, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for March, JOLTS Job Openings and Nonfarm Payrolls. Daily digest market movers: Gold prices set to challenge $3,100 in the short term The US 10-year T-note yield is plummeting, down ten basis points at 4.259%. US real yields edge down seven and a half bps to 1.887%, according to US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index held steady at 2.5% YoY in February, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.8% YoY, up slightly from the upwardly revised 2.7% in the previous month. While largely maintaining the status quo, these readings indicate that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dipped from a preliminary 57.9 to 57.0, as US households grew more pessimistic. One-year inflation expectations climbed to 5%, while five-year expectations rose from 3.9% to 4.1%, reflecting rising consumer concerns over future price pressures. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price rallies past $3,050, eyes on $3,100 Gold’s rally continues with the yellow metal poised to hit a record high of $3,086, clearing the path to challenge $3,100. Momentum suggests that Bullion prices seem poised to extend their gains, past the latter, with the psychological $3,150 and $3,200 exposed if cleared. Due to the aggressiveness of the uptrend, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned overbought, exceeding 70. Nevertheless, the most extreme reading would be 80 as of the time of writing. Conversely, if the XAU/USD drops below March’s high of $3,057, this could exacerbate a pullback toward $3,000. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

21:31 United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions declined to $249.8K from previous $257.9K
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions declined to $249.8K from previous $257.9K

21:31 United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions increased to £44.3K from previous £29.4K
United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions increased to £44.3K from previous £29.4K

21:31 United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions rose from previous 166.8K to 180.6K
United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions rose from previous 166.8K to 180.6K

21:31 Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions up to €65.5K from previous €59.4K
Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions up to €65.5K from previous €59.4K

21:31 Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions rose from previous ¥123K to ¥125.4K
Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions rose from previous ¥123K to ¥125.4K

21:31 Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions fell from previous $-70.4K to $-77.4K
Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions fell from previous $-70.4K to $-77.4K

21:31 United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $68.3K to $-53.4K
United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $68.3K to $-53.4K

20:31 US Dollar stalls as markets digest PCE and tariff outlook
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is currently flat near 104.30 on Friday following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation metric — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

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The reading showed a mild uptick, helping the Greenback hold recent levels. However, the rally appears capped as safe-haven flows favor Gold, and technical signals remain bearish. Daily digest market movers: US Dollar holds gains after PCE release, tariff jitters February’s core PCE rose 0.4%, above the expected 0.3%, reinforcing lingering inflation concerns in the United States. The headline PCE printed at 0.3%, matching expectations and offering no major surprises for traders. Despite stronger data, the US Dollar Index traded sideways as Gold surged beyond $3,080 to hit new record highs. US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcements, including a 25% auto levy effective April 2, rattled global trade sentiment. European Union officials warned of a “robust and timely” response if tariffs are implemented as planned next week. European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said the tariffs will have temporary inflationary effects but lasting damage on Eurozone growth. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized the US strategy, stating that isolationism would ultimately harm all involved economies. The DXY remains in a tight consolidation range as markets await clearer directional catalysts post-PCE. On Thursday, the US GDP was revised to 2.4% for Q4, slightly above the initial estimate, but had minimal impact on the Greenback. Jobless claims data showed improvement, with continuing claims falling to 1.856 million, supporting the labor market narrative. The reciprocal tariff deadline of April 2 is drawing near, raising concerns about a possible trade conflict with the EU. Technical analysis The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade in consolidation near the 104.30 zone after a mild post-PCE reaction. While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flashes a buy signal, momentum indicators remain mixed. The Awesome Oscillator holds steady, suggesting subdued trend strength. The bearish backdrop is supported by the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), as well as the 10- and 30-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), all pointing lower. Resistance is located at 104.118, 104.145, and 104.472, while immediate support rests at 103.951. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

20:14 Mexican Peso sinks as Banxico cuts, US PCE and tariff fears boost US Dollar
The Mexican Peso (MXN) prolongs its agony in the week, depreciating against the US Dollar (USD) after Banco de Mexico (Banxico) reduced interest rates but also paved the way for additional easing.

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This, along with an inflation report and trade policies in the United States (US), boosted the Greenback. At the time of writing, USD/MXN exchange rate is 20.43, representing a 0.67% increase. On Thursday, Banxico cut rates by 50 basis points to 9% on a unanimous decision due to the evolution of the disinflation process, even though it foresees that inflation risks are tilted to the upside. The board anticipates that inflation will continue to ease and “might consider adjusting it in similar magnitudes.” Aside from economic data, Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, commented that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) helps North America compete against China, adding that ongoing talks with the US are aimed at protecting jobs in Mexico. Across the border, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revealed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, ticked a tenth up, drifting away from the Fed’s 2%. Other data showed that Consumer Sentiment deteriorated in March, as announced by the University of Michigan (UoM), which also mentioned that inflation expectations have risen sharply, reflecting a consensus amongst all demographic and political affiliations revealed by the survey. Next week, the Mexican economic schedule will feature Business Confidence, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Gross Fixed Investment figures. In the US, traders are focusing on April’s 2 Trump’s tariffs announcement, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for March, JOLTS Job Openings, and Nonfarm Payrolls. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso drops following Banxico’s decision Mexico’s Business Confidence in February was 50.4. A reading below that level would indicate that companies are becoming pessimistic about the economy, with the result being its lowest level since May 2021. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory for eight straight months at 47.6 in February. A March print beneath this would suggest the economic slowdown is deeper than foreseen. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) remained unchanged at 2.5% YoY in February. The core PCE print expanded 2.8% YoY, up from 2.7% for the same period. Although the prints maintained the status quo, inflation continues to drift away from the Fed’s 2% target. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index deteriorated slightly, falling from 57.9 in the preliminary reading to 57.0. US households turned pessimistic, expecting prices to increase by 5% for one year, while inflation expectations for five years ticked up from 3.9% to 4.1%. On Wednesday, Trump signed an executive order adding 25% duties on imported automobiles, effective on April 2. He said that he would announce additional tariffs next week. In 2024, the US imported $474 billion worth of automotive products, including passenger cars valued at $220 billion. Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Canada and Germany were the biggest suppliers. Traders had priced the Fed to ease policy by 64 basis points (bps) throughout the year, according to data from the Chicago Board of Trade. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso dives as USD/MXN bulls target 20.50 The Mexican currency remains pressured, as depicted by the USD/MXN pair surging sharply, clearing the confluence of the 100 and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) near 20.35/36, opening the door to reach 20.45, a new weekly high. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is about to cross the latest peak, signaling that bulls are stepping in. That said, the first resistance for USD/MXN would be 20.50. If surpassed, the next ceiling would be the March 4 peak of 20.99, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high of 21.28. Conversely, a drop below 20.35/36 paves the way to test the 20.00 mark. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

19:54 Dow Jones Industrial Average drops on fresh inflation, tariff, and recession fears
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) backslid over 700 points on Friday, falling 1.75% and tumbling to 41,500 after core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation figures accelerated in February.

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Consumer inflation fears rose in March, and the consumer outlook on economic conditions also deteriorated further as tariff fears continue to take a bite out of general sentiment. Core PCE Price Index inflation ticked up to 2.8% YoY in February as inflation pressures continue to flash warning signs that it will take longer for the Federal (Reserve) to achieve 2% inflation than previously thought. PCE inflation has functionally remained flat for a nine-month stretch, with monthly releases holding steady above 2.6% YoY since June of last year. The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index crumpled to its lowest levels in over two years, falling to 57.0 compared to the expected flat hold at 57.9. UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations rose again, climbing to 5.0%. UoM Consumer 5-year Inflation Expectations also lifted to 4.1% versus the forecast of 3.9%. Median market forecasts widely expected consumer sentiment to remain flat in February as investors horribly misjudge how beleaguered US consumers are getting in the face of the Trump administration’s self-styled trade war. Despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that sweeping tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, will be good for the US, consumers are growing increasingly concerned that economic conditions are going to continue deteriorating and inflation will continue to rise. President Trump reiterated on Friday that he will still enact a wide slew of tariffs on April 2, a day he continues to try and label Liberation Day. The Trump administration is promising to kick off a 25% tariff on all automobiles not produced in the US, as well as “reciprocal” tariffs on every country that has defensive tariffs on US goods. The Trump administration also plans to add further flat import taxes on items ranging from Copper, to microchips, and pharmaceuticals, as well as additional revenge tariffs of 20% on any country that also purchases Venezuelan Crude Oil. Stock news Equity indexes are down across the board on Friday. The Dow Jones fell over 700 points to 41,500, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index backsliding 115 points to decline 2% on the day. The Nasdaq Composite tech index and shed weight, falling around 500 points to lose 2.7% from Friday’s opening bids. Dow Jones price forecast A fresh bout of selling has dragged the Dow Jones Industrial Average back below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the 42,000 major handle. Price action is paring away recent gains after the Dow Jones’ last downturn, which dragged the index below 40,800. The DJIA briefly recovered to the 42,800 region this week, but momentum has quickly turned lower once again, with the Dow Jones declining 3% top-to-bottom over a three-day period. Unless bullish momentum returns, the DJIA is poised for a fresh challenge of the 41,000 key level. Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

19:01 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count declined to 484 from previous 486
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count declined to 484 from previous 486

18:01 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Edges toward 1.0830 as bullish momentum builds post-Europe
EUR/USD extended its upward trajectory on Friday, moving near the 1.0830 region after the European session and toward the upper end of the day’s trading range.

EUR/USD was seen trading near the 1.0830 zone on Friday after the European session, moving closer to the top of its daily range.Despite mixed oscillator signals, short- and long-term moving averages support the pair’s ongoing bullish momentum.Support is seen around 1.0790–1.0810, while resistance stands near 1.0845; MACD flashes a sell, but trend bias remains bullish.EUR/USD extended its upward trajectory on Friday, moving near the 1.0830 region after the European session and toward the upper end of the day’s trading range. The pair has gained traction, reflecting investor appetite for the euro despite mixed short-term signals. Technicals reveal an ongoing bullish backdrop, underpinned by supportive moving averages, though caution remains as oscillators flash neutral-to-negative cues. Momentum indicators are mixed. The short-term Relative Strength Index is neutral at 5.91, and when combined with the Stochastic indicator, it confirms a lack of clear directional drive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flashes a sell signal, while the longer-term RSI (14) sits at around 57. The Bull Bear Power also remains marginally negative, suggesting slight hesitation despite recent gains. However, the moving averages paint a more optimistic picture. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0791, the 100-day at 1.0518, and the 200-day at 1.0729 all signal buy conditions, reinforcing the prevailing bullish structure. Additional support from the 30-day Exponential Moving Average (1.0709) and SMA (1.0682) further strengthens this view. On the downside, support levels are located at 1.0810, 1.0791, and 1.0785. Resistance is found near 1.0845, a key area that, if breached, could open the door for an extended move higher. While bullish conditions persist, traders may need to navigate choppy signals from oscillators as the pair consolidates gains. EUR/USD daily chart

17:25 GBP/USD steadies near 1.2950 as traders digest PCE figures, tariff turmoil
The Pound Sterling remains firm, hovering around 1.2950 against the US Dollar, virtually unchanged, as traders digest the latest inflation report from the United States (US), amid uncertainty about a potential trade war escalation following Trump's imposition of tariffs on cars.

16:45 Fed’s Daly: Two rate cuts this year seems “reasonable”
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly maintains that two rate cuts this year remain a reasonable projection, but with robust economic indicators, policymakers can hold off on reducing rates until they evaluate how businesses adapt to tariff costs.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly maintains that two rate cuts this year remain a reasonable projection, but with robust economic indicators, policymakers can hold off on reducing rates until they evaluate how businesses adapt to tariff costs.Key QuotesTwo rate cuts still a reasonable projection for 2025. Need wait-and-see posture on monetary policy, give industries time to adjust to tariffs. Growth and labor market remain solid. Making sure we are on sustainable path to 2% inflation is top of mind. Policy is in a good place, have to be patient to ensure inflation comes down. She has not changed her rate-path projection since last year, doesn't have enough info to make a change. Hearing 'cautious optimism' from businesses.

16:36 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD refreshes five-month high near $34.60 on global trade concerns
Silver price (XAG/USD) posts a fresh five-month high near $34.60 in North American trading hours on Friday.

16:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation above expectations (3.9%) in March: Actual (4.1%)
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation above expectations (3.9%) in March: Actual (4.1%)

16:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 57 below forecasts (57.9) in March
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 57 below forecasts (57.9) in March

15:52 EUR/GBP is trading below the MA at 0.8380 – Société Générale
EUR/GBP attempted a cross above its 200-DMA earlier this month but has faced strong resistance near 0.8450 and has once again dipped below the MA (0.8380), Société Générale's FX analysts note.

EUR/GBP attempted a cross above its 200-DMA earlier this month but has faced strong resistance near 0.8450 and has once again dipped below the MA (0.8380), Société Générale's FX analysts note. If a break above 0.8380 fails, there's a risk of continuation in pullback "Interestingly, it has witnessed multiple failed breakouts above this MA since 2023 and the downtrend has gradually persisted after these failures. If the pair struggles to establish above 0.8380, there could be risk of continuation in pullback. Next short-term supports are located at 0.8320, the 61.8% retracement from February and 0.8285."

15:52 USD/JPY remains under pressures near 150.50, US core PCE Inflation heats up
The USD/JPY pair is down more than 0.3% near 150.50 in North American session on Friday.

14:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in February
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in February

14:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.8% above expectations (2.7%) in February
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.8% above expectations (2.7%) in February

14:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above forecasts (0.3%) in January: Actual (0.4%)
Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above forecasts (0.3%) in January: Actual (0.4%)

14:30 United States Personal Spending came in at 0.4% below forecasts (0.5%) in February
United States Personal Spending came in at 0.4% below forecasts (0.5%) in February

14:30 United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above forecasts (0.4%) in February
United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above forecasts (0.4%) in February

14:30 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in February
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in February

14:30 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.5%) in February
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.5%) in February

14:30 India Current Account Balance $ came in at $-11.5B, above forecasts ($-12B) in 4Q
India Current Account Balance $ came in at $-11.5B, above forecasts ($-12B) in 4Q

14:00 Mexico Jobless Rate s.a increased to 2.7% in February from previous 2.6%
Mexico Jobless Rate s.a increased to 2.7% in February from previous 2.6%

14:00 Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.5%, below expectations (2.6%) in February
Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.5%, below expectations (2.6%) in February

13:54 US Dollar steadies as markets look for fresh clues in the US PCE inflation release
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is currently flat to slightly higher near 104.50 at the time of writing on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Markets are chasing safe havens such as Gold to fresh all-time highs. Traders brace for the February US PCE release, looking for fresh clues on inflation.The US Dollar Index trades stable around 104.50, though no safe-haven flow in the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is currently flat to slightly higher near 104.50 at the time of writing on Friday. Traders are not really looking at the Greenback but rather at an exodus from Equities and Cryptocurrencies into the precious metals’ market, where Gold has hit another all-time high this Friday at $3,086. The reciprocal tariff deadline is approaching fast, April 2, and clearly has struck a nerve amongst traders and market participants. On the economic data front, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for February. The core and headline monthly PCE readings are both expected to grow steadily by 0.3%.Daily digest market movers: All eyes in PCE for fresh clues on inflationAt 12:30 GMT, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures data for February is due to be released: The monthly headline PCE is set to come in at 0.3%, unchanged from the previous 0.3%. The yearly gauge is expected to remain stable at 2.5%. The monthly core PCE should grow steadily by 0.3%. The yearly core PCE should tick up to 2.7% from 2.6%. At the same time, the US Personal Income month-on-month for February is expected to ease to 0.4% from 0.9% previously. The US Personal Spending for February should tick up to 0.5%, coming from the previous contraction of 0.2%. At 14:00 GMT, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reading for March is expected to remain stable at 57.9. The 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations are set to remain unchanged at 3.9%. At 16:15 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak on Banking Policy at the 2025 Banking Institute in Charlotte, N.C. At 19:30 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic will moderate a policy panel at the third annual Georgia Tech-Atlanta Fed Household Finance Conference at the Atlanta Fed, Atlanta, Georgia. Equities are diving lower with losses between 0.5% to 2% crossing from Asia over Europe and into US futures. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of interest rates remaining at the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in May’s meeting is 87.1%. For June’s meeting, the odds for borrowing costs being lower stand at 65.5%. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.33%, looking for direction with some small safe haven inflow. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: What about inflation?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been roughly consolidating since that seismic drop at the start of March. Slowly but surely, some small unwinding of that big move lower is starting to unfold. Look for a synchronized move, with Gold paring back gains and the rate differential between the US and other countries widening again, for a comeback of the DXY to 105.00/106.00. With the weekly close above 104.00 last week, a return to the 105.00 round level could still occur in the coming days, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) converging at that point and reinforcing this area as a strong resistance at 104.95. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, could limit the upward momentum. On the downside, the 104.00 round level is the first nearby support after a successful bounce on Tuesday. If that level does not hold, the DXY risks falling back into that March range between 104.00 and 103.00. Once the lower end at 103.00 gives way, watch out for 101.90 on the downside. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

13:48 Market does not expect US import tariffs on crude oil from Canada and Mexico – Commerzbank
The postponement of US import tariffs on certain goods from Canada and Mexico granted by US President Trump at the beginning of March will end next Wednesday, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The postponement of US import tariffs on certain goods from Canada and Mexico granted by US President Trump at the beginning of March will end next Wednesday, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. The postponement of US import tariffs ends next Wednesday "If there is no further postponement, US refineries will have to pay a tariff of 10% on crude oil imports from Canada and 25% on crude oil imports from Mexico. The market apparently expects that this duty will not be introduced after all. This is the only explanation for the fact that the price discount for the Canadian oil grade WCS compared to WTI has shrunk to $12 per barrel." "At the beginning of March, it was still more than $15, and at the end of January, when US tariffs were first threatened, it was around $18 per barrel. According to the data provider LSEG, the price discount even fell to less than $10 this week." "The significant decline in the price difference could be linked to the expected loss of oil supplies from Venezuela, as Canadian oil could serve as a substitute for US refineries. However, the current low price difference only makes sense if the threatened import tariffs do not materialise."

13:43 EUR/USD to consolidate around 1.08-1.09 with upside risks – Danske Bank
EUR/USD holds around 1.08 as Trump imposes auto tariffs and signals lenient reciprocal measures, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports.

EUR/USD holds around 1.08 as Trump imposes auto tariffs and signals lenient reciprocal measures, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports. USD reaction to tariffs remains uncertain "Yesterday, we outlined enacted and upcoming tariffs, their direct GDP impact, and potential next steps. The USD reaction remains uncertain, with past tariff impacts so far mixed - lower import demand and inflationary effects offset by growth concerns. Aggressive tariffs could fuel risk-off sentiment, but USD upside is not guaranteed if markets focus on US recession risks." "Near term, we expect EUR/USD to consolidate around 1.08-1.09 with upside risks. Given the uncertainty, we see a wide outcome space and look to sell into potential USD rallies on aggressive tariff announcements, as implementation delays may allow room for negotiation and potential reversals of initial market reactions."

13:38 US natural gas storage rises – ING
US natural gas prices traded under pressure as the US witnessed its second straight week of inventory injection while weather forecasts remained mixed, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

US natural gas prices traded under pressure as the US witnessed its second straight week of inventory injection while weather forecasts remained mixed, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Oil prices are trading almost flat "The weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that US natural gas storage increased by 37bcf over the last week, above the expected 32bcf increase. However, this was contrary to the five-year average decline of 31 bcf. Meanwhile, total gas stockpiles totalled 1.74tcf as of 21 March, down 24.2% year-on-year and 6.5% below the five-year average." "Oil prices are trading almost flat this morning as the market remains cautious about softer demand and rising supply. The OPEC+ group is scheduled to start reviving its idled production with the first monthly increases of 138k b/d next month, following its decision to gradually unwind the output cuts of 2.2m b/d by 2026." "On the other hand, some of the OPEC countries have agreed to further reduce the output (ranging from 189k b/d to 435k b/d until June 2026) to compensate for higher production earlier. The cuts, if implemented, will help offset the production hikes and balance the market in the immediate term."

13:37 USD/CNH: Likely to trade sideways between 7.2570 and 7.2820 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade sideways vs Chinese Yuan (CNH) between 7.2570 and 7.2820.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade sideways vs Chinese Yuan (CNH) between 7.2570 and 7.2820. In the longer run, momentum has improved further; USD could continue to rise to 7.2980, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD can continue to rise to 7.2980 24-HOUR VIEW: "After USD rose to 7.2822 two days ago, we highlighted yesterday that 'although there has been no clear increase in upward momentum, there is scope for USD to test 7.2855.' We pointed out, 'support levels are at 7.2720 and 7.2650.' Our expectations did not materialise, as USD traded in a 7.2658/7.2791 range, closing at 7.2671 (-0.16%). The price action appears to be part of a sideways trading range, mostly likely between 7.2570 and 7.2820." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Momentum has improved further; USD could continue to rise to 7.2980. On Wednesday (26 Mar, spot at 7.2655), highlighted that 'there appears to be enough momentum for USD to rise to 7.2820.' After USD rose to 7.2822, we highlighted yesterday (27 Mar, spot at 7.2765) that 'momentum has improved further, and we continue to expect USD to rise, and the next level to monitor is 7.2980.' We will maintain our view as long as the ‘strong support’ at 7.2500 (no change in level from yesterday) is intact."

13:33 China: Buckle up for ‘Liberation Day’ – Standard Chartered
The US has limited room to further hike tariffs on China under the Reciprocal Tariff Act.

The US has limited room to further hike tariffs on China under the Reciprocal Tariff Act. But tariff uncertainty remains high; result of the US-China 2020 Phase 1 trade deal review is crucial. The proposed US port fee, if implemented, could disrupt global shipping, Standard Chartered's economists note. The eye of the storm "The US has limited room to further hike tariffs on China under reciprocal terms, in our view, as it nears the conclusion of its trade investigations under the Reciprocal Trade Act. Reciprocal tariffs are due to be announced on 2 April – termed ‘Liberation Day’ by Trump. We estimate that the average US tariff on China is currently 15ppt higher than China’s average tariff on the US. Even if the US treats VAT as a trade barrier, China’s highest VAT rate is 13%, still lower than the current US-China tariff differential. But uncertainty regarding trade restrictions is still high, and the result of the 2020 Phase 1 trade deal review could be crucial. " "Trump has already announced a 25% tariff on all foreign-made cars (including parts), effective soon. Pharmaceutical products, chips and lumber could also be targeted, but their tariff timing is uncertain. However, we expect the sectoral tariffs to have a limited impact on China, as the average US tariff on China has already reached c.32%, which is higher than the recently announced sectoral tariffs. The planned ‘secondary tariff’ on Venezuela (effective 2 April) would also have a marginal impact on China; China’s oil imports from Venezuela were only 0.3% of its total oil purchases in 2024." "Beside tariffs, the US has also hardened restrictions on China’s investment, shipping, and AI industry. The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) has proposed port entrance fees for any shipping operator using China-made vessels. If the proposal becomes legislation, it will cause significant disruptions to global logistics and create an extra barrier to China’s exports, in our view."

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD: $658.8B (March 17) vs $654.27B
India FX Reserves, USD: $658.8B (March 17) vs $654.27B

13:29 Copper has continues to retreat from its nine-month high – ING
Meanwhile, Copper has continued to retreat from its nine-month high as expectations for the ex-US tightness are retreating following reports earlier this week that US tariffs on Copper imports could be imposed within weeks, not months, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Meanwhile, Copper has continued to retreat from its nine-month high as expectations for the ex-US tightness are retreating following reports earlier this week that US tariffs on Copper imports could be imposed within weeks, not months, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Growth US likely to slow on the back of tariffs "Tariffs are bearish for Copper and other industrial metals in the context of slowing growth and keeping inflation higher for longer. If US inflation remains persistent or rebounds, it could prompt the Federal Reserve to delay or increase interest rate cuts."
"With growth in the US likely to slow on the back of tariffs and China already struggling to revive its economy, demand for Copper and other industrial metals is likely to weaken looking ahead."

13:27 USD/JPY: Has a small chance of testing 151.30 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could test 151.30 vs Japanese Yen (JPY); it is uncertain if it can break clearly above this level.

US Dollar (USD) could test 151.30 vs Japanese Yen (JPY); it is uncertain if it can break clearly above this level. In the longer run, if USD breaks and holds above 151.30, it could trigger additional gains to 152.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Above 151.30, USD/JPY to face additional gains to 152.30 24-HOUR VIEW: "When USD was at 150.50 yesterday, we expected it to 'edge higher.' However, we pointed out that it 'does not appear to have enough momentum to break clearly above 151.00.' The anticipated advance exceeded our expectations, as USD rose above 151.00, reaching a high of 151.15. Today, while USD could test 151.30, upward momentum remains unconvincing, and it is incertain if it can break clearly above this level. The next major resistance at 152.30 is unlikely to come into view. On the downside, support is at 150.70, followed by 150.30." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Two days ago (26 Mar, spot at 149.90), we highlighted that 'while there is scope for USD to rise further, it may find the 151.00/151.30 resistance zone difficult to break.' Yesterday, USD rose to a high of 151.15. From here, if USD breaks and holds above 151.30, it could trigger additional gains toward 152.30. We will continue to view USD is a positive manner, as long as the ‘strong support’ at 149.50 (level was at 149.00 yesterday) is not breached."

13:24 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Trades inside Thursday’s range ahead of US PCE Inflation
The USD/CHF pair ticks higher to near 0.8830 but trades inside Thursday’s trading range in Friday’s North American session ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

13:04 Italy Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.7% (February) vs previous 1.6%
Italy Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.7% (February) vs previous 1.6%

13:04 Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 6.2% in February from previous 4.4%
Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 6.2% in February from previous 4.4%

13:03 Gold climbs to a new record high – ING
Gold surged to a fresh record high this morning, surpassing the previous record hit just yesterday, after US President Donald Trump announced 'permanent' 25% tariffs on auto imports, intensifying trade tensions, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Gold surged to a fresh record high this morning, surpassing the previous record hit just yesterday, after US President Donald Trump announced 'permanent' 25% tariffs on auto imports, intensifying trade tensions, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Trump’s unpredictable trade policy is the key driver for Gold "Trump’s unpredictable trade policy has been the key driver for Gold so far in 2025, with prices up by more than 16% year-to-date, extending its momentum from 2024. We see uncertainty over trade and tariffs, along with central bank buying and inflows into ETF holdings continuing to buoy Gold prices."

13:00 Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous -0.3% to 1.8% in February
Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous -0.3% to 1.8% in February

13:00 Ireland Retail Sales (MoM): 0.7% (February) vs -0.5%
Ireland Retail Sales (MoM): 0.7% (February) vs -0.5%

13:00 JPY: Inflation surprises to the upside – Commerzbank
This morning saw the release of March inflation figures for the Tokyo area, which are traditionally a good leading indicator for inflation in Japan as a whole.

This morning saw the release of March inflation figures for the Tokyo area, which are traditionally a good leading indicator for inflation in Japan as a whole. And for a change, the figures surprised on the upside. And not because of rising food and energy prices. No, this time it was the core rate, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Inflation figures surprise on the upside "At 2.9%, the inflation rate was slightly higher than in the previous month (revised down from 2.9% to 2.8%) and also exceeded most analysts' expectations (2.7%). As mentioned above, this month's increase was mainly driven by the core rate, which rose from 0.8% to 1.1%. However, this also shows that we are not talking about worrying levels and that the lion's share of the current headline rate still comes from food. The annual rate for fresh food remains at 12.9% and for all other food at 5.6%." "The core rate is likely to rise sharply again next month, as a low base will be removed from the April data. This special effect from April last year had distorted the core rate downwards in recent months. Even so, the core rate is likely to remain below 2% and will not signal a problematic development. Moreover, the nationwide inflation rate is not affected by this special effect, so it will have no impact on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy." "This morning, the JPY benefited slightly from the slightly higher core rate and remained stable against the US Dollar. However, next week's movements will be more influenced by the US reciprocal tariffs, which will be published on the 2nd of April."

12:49 AUD: Suffering as the CNY proxy – ING
Despite some ongoing reassessment of the dollar, AUD/USD has lagged, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Despite some ongoing reassessment of the dollar, AUD/USD has lagged, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. A move back to 0.6200 is possible next week "We think it could be vulnerable into next week's US reciprocal tariffs, where more tariffs on China look likely as Washington seeks to restructure global trade. A move back to 0.6200 is possible next week, while a cross rate like GBP/AUD could push up to the 2.08/2.09 area – levels last seen at the start of 2020."

12:47 NZD/USD: Expected to continue to trade in a range – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to continue to trade in a range, likely between 0.5710 and 0.5755.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to continue to trade in a range, likely between 0.5710 and 0.5755. In the longer run, NZD is likely to edge lower toward the major support zone of 0.5650/0.5670, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Chance for NZD to edge lower toward the 0.5650/0.5670 area 24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected 'further range trading' yesterday, we indicated that 'the softened underlying tone suggests NZD is likely to trade in a lower range of 0.5700/0.5750.' NZD then traded between 0.5715 and 0.5755, closing at 0.5739 (+0.17%). The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect NZD to trade in a range, likely between 0.5710 and 0.5755." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as Wednesday (26 Mar, spot at 0.5730). As highlighted, NZD 'is likely to edge lower toward the major support zone between 0.5650 and 0.5670.' While the likelihood of NZD breaking this support zone is not high, the downward bias will remain intact provided that NZD remains below 0.5770 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level)."

12:42 GBP: Retail sales surprise on the upside – ING
UK retail sales surprise on the upside, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

UK retail sales surprise on the upside, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. US tariffs are a EUR/GBP negative "Our UK economist, James Smith, writes: 'Another decent month for UK retail saw sales up 1%, having risen 1.4% last month (these are volume figures, so inflation adjusted)." "It's unusual to have two such strong months in a row, given this is a volatile data set – though it was equally strange to see four consecutive falls through the final months of 2024, given real-wage growth is so strong in the UK (6% wage growth, 2-3% inflation). So I think what we're seeing is a catch-up in the data to the probable underlying trend." "Sterling has strengthened a little further on today's retail sales figures. 0.8320 is clear support, below which it looks biased towards 0.8250. Next week will be dominated by the tariff story, and tariffs are EUR/GBP negative."

12:36 Italy 5-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.93% to 3.05%
Italy 5-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.93% to 3.05%

12:36 Italy 10-y Bond Auction up to 3.83% from previous 3.55%
Italy 10-y Bond Auction up to 3.83% from previous 3.55%

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) declined to -0.07% in March from previous 0.2%
Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) declined to -0.07% in March from previous 0.2%

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.91% in March from previous 3.55%
Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.91% in March from previous 3.55%

12:22 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.4300 ahead of US PCE Inflation, Canadian GDP data
The USD/CAD pair rises to near 1.4330 during European trading hours on Friday.

12:15 Gold stretches its rally to $3,086 and hits a fresh all-time high
Gold price (XAU/USD) is penciling another record performance this Friday, hitting $3,086 as the new all-time high for now and trading around $3,075 at the time of writing.

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Gold traders are now targeting $3,100 in the near term.Gold price (XAU/USD) is penciling another record performance this Friday, hitting $3,086 as the new all-time high for now and trading around $3,075 at the time of writing. Bullion sees another wave of safe-haven inflow, this time from investors that are exiting Equity and Crypto positions. From here, the next big psychological target and level to beat will be $3,100. Later this Friday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for February is due. The overall consensus is for rather steady numbers, with the monthly core PCE expected to remain unchanged at 0.3%, while the headline figure should remain cemented at 0.3% as well. These past few days, inflation concerns in the United States (US) have been picking up as the impact of the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff implementations on inflation is hard to measure. The risks of the US economy heading into recession or stagflation are major concerns for investors and could bring moves in Equity and Bond markets, and see Gold extending further. Daily digest market movers: Lost track of it all, good for GoldInflation in France and Spain undershot expectations this Friday, supporting calls for more interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). The French headline Consumer Price Index year-on-year grew steadily by 0.9% this month, defying analyst predictions for an uptick. In Spain, it slowed by 2.2%, a much deeper deceleration than expected, and is the first country that approaches the ECB’s target of 2%, Bloomberg reports. Some fair-value modeling reveals that Gold is 13% overvalued, suggesting that further policy uncertainty regarding US tariff execution is already factored in. A peace deal for Ukraine could see the precious metal give up some gains as geopolitical risk perceptions ease, Reuters reports. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump signed a proclamation to implement a 25% tariff on auto imports and pledged harsher punishment on the EU and Canada if they join forces “to do economic harm” against the US, while April 2nd approaches fast for the so-called reciprocal tariff implementation, Bloomberg reports.Gold Price Technical Analysis: Analyst calls remain bullishTraders are starting to throw in the towel on Equities and Crypto, with Gold being the hottest place in town. More and more analysts are revising their calls for Gold to higher levels, which means that a crucial point of being ‘overbought’ is starting to grow. Taking part in the rally still makes sense, but at least paying attention to specific levels will make the trade more manageable on where to get in, where to take profit, or when to stop it out. On the upside, the daily R1 resistance for XAU/USD comes in at $3,072 and has already been tested earlier this Friday. Further up, the R2 resistance at $3,086 coincides with the fresh all-time high. Once from there the $3,100 mark looks far off, but still, it could see the rally at least move in that direction. On the downside, the first support to be considered is the daily Pivot Point at $3,044, followed by the intraday S1 support at $3,030. Further down, the S2 support comes in at $3,002, which roughly coincides with the $3,000 mark psychological level. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:11 AUD/USD: Likely to continue to trade between 0.6275/0.6320 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to continue to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), expected to be between 0.6275/0.6320.

Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to continue to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), expected to be between 0.6275/0.6320. In the longer run, AUD appears range-bound for now, likely between 0.6240 and 0.6355, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD appears range-bound for now 24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we detected 'a slight increase in downward momentum.' We held the view that AUD 'is likely to trade in a lower range of 0.6270/0.6320.' AUD subsequently in a narrower range than expected, between 0.6280 and 0.6318, closing slightly higher at 0.6305 (+0.11%). The price action continues to appear like part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade in a 0.6275/0.6320 range."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from two days ago, (26 Mar, spot at 0.6305), where AUD 'appears range-bound for now, likely between 0.6240 and 0.6355.' There is no in our view."

12:04 Eurozone Services Sentiment below forecasts (6.8) in March: Actual (2.4)
Eurozone Services Sentiment below forecasts (6.8) in March: Actual (2.4)

12:04 Eurozone Industrial Confidence registered at -10.6, below expectations (-10.5) in March
Eurozone Industrial Confidence registered at -10.6, below expectations (-10.5) in March

12:03 Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (-14.5) in March
Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (-14.5) in March

12:03 Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator below forecasts (97) in March: Actual (95.2)
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator below forecasts (97) in March: Actual (95.2)

12:03 EUR/USD weakens ahead of US PCE Inflation, Trump’s tariff announcement
EUR/USD declines to near 1.0775 during European trading hours on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD faces pressure near 1.0800 as investors are cautious ahead of the US PCE inflation data for February.The European Commission prepares for retaliatory measures against US President Trump’s auto tariffs.Inflation in Spain and France grew at a moderate pace in March.EUR/USD declines to near 1.0775 during European trading hours on Friday. The major currency pair faces pressure as United States (US) President Donald Trump is set to announce impending reciprocal tariffs on April 2. The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump is expected to weigh on economic growth and boost inflationary pressures across the globe, including the US. Trump also announced 25% tariffs on autos entering the US on Wednesday, which will become effective from April 2. Trump’s auto levy has resulted in global mayhem in automobile and auto-ancillary manufacturing companies' stocks. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have expressed concerns over a resurgence in price pressures in the near term due to Trump’s tariff agenda. "It looks inevitable that tariffs are going to increase inflation in the near term," Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins said at an event on Thursday. Collins added that it seems more likely than not right now the increase in inflation will be “short-lived,” but warned of “potential risks” that higher price pressures could be persistent in nature. On the interest rate outlook, Collins said that holding them at their current levels for longer “is likely to be appropriate”. However, the Fed should show "active patience" and stand ready to be “flexible”. In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index for February, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Economists expect the US core PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to have grown at a faster pace of 2.7% year-on-year, compared to the 2.6% increase seen in January. The impact of the underlying inflation data is expected to be limited over the market speculation for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook as the central bank’s fate relies largely upon the consequences of Donald Trump’s economic policies. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD declines on potential US-EU trade war EUR/USD weakens amid deepening uncertainty over the Euro (EUR) due to potential risks of a trade war between the Eurozone and the US. The European Commission (EC) plans to announce retaliatory tariffs on the US for imposing a 25% blanket levy on autos. German carmakers dispatch 13% of their total auto exports to the US, and a 25% tariff on autos could make their cars less competitive in the global market. “We regret 25% auto tariffs and a new suite of measures coming on April 2, but we are preparing for all of these,” EC spokesman Olof Gill said on Thursday. When asked about the degree and timing of retaliatory measures, Gill refrained from guiding exact timings but assured that it will be “timely, robust, well calibrated and will achieve the intended impact". Financial market participants and German leaders warned that auto tariffs would be a lose-lose situation for both countries. “Trump’s decision is wrong," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Thursday and added that the US has chosen a path at whose end “lie only losers” since tariffs and isolation hurt prosperity “for everyone”. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) officials expect Trump’s tariff agenda will hurt the Eurozone economic growth and boost inflationary pressures in the near term. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be temporary, but it will be persistent on growth. "For growth, trade is extremely detrimental," de Guindos said and added, the "worst outcome is a vicious circle of tariffs/retaliation." On the monetary policy guidance, de Guindos said, "it is very difficult to say what ECB will do in April." On the economic front, France and Spain's March preliminary inflation data has shown that price pressures rose at a slower-than-expected pace. In 12 months to March, France’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) (EU Norm) rose steadily by 0.9%, slower than estimates of 1.1%. In the same period, Spain’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) grew at a slower pace of 2.2%, compared to the prior release of 2.9%. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD holds key 20-day EMA EUR/USD drops to near 1.0775 on Friday but continues to hold the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0760. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down below 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum is over, but the upside bias is intact. Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:01 Eurozone Business Climate up to -0.73 in March from previous -0.74
Eurozone Business Climate up to -0.73 in March from previous -0.74

12:01 Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 1.7% in January from previous -7.2%
Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 1.7% in January from previous -7.2%

12:00 Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -2.7% to 3.8% in January
Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -2.7% to 3.8% in January

12:00 Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 0.6% in February from previous 0.3%
Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 0.6% in February from previous 0.3%

12:00 US crude oil inventories decline significantly – Commerzbank
US crude oil inventories declined by 3.3 million barrels last week, as reported by the US Department of Energy in the middle of the week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

US crude oil inventories declined by 3.3 million barrels last week, as reported by the US Department of Energy in the middle of the week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Crude oil stocks are currently around 5% below the 5-year average "This was the biggest drop in inventories so far this year. According to a Bloomberg survey, an increase in inventories had been expected. However, as the American Petroleum Institute had reported an even sharper decline in crude oil inventories the previous evening, the surprise was limited, meaning that oil prices did not benefit any further." "The higher net crude oil imports with only a slight increase in crude oil processing would have suggested a build-up in inventories. In addition, US petrol demand and US demand for distillates also recorded weekly declines. Nevertheless, there was also a decline in stocks of petrol and distillates." "One reason for this could have been the continued high net exports of oil products. Crude oil stocks are currently around 5% below the 5-year average, while distillate stocks are even 7% lower. In contrast, there is a corresponding upward deviation of 2.4% in petrol stocks."

11:57 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.3000 range today – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.3000 range today vs US Dollar (USD).

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.3000 range today vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.2850 and 1.3050, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase 24-HOUR VIEW: "We pointed out yesterday that 'the risk is for GBP to test the major support at 1.2850.' We also pointed out that, 'Currently, it is too early to determine if GBP can break clearly below this level.' However, GBP did not test 1.2850. Instead, it rebounded from 1.2872 to 1.2992, closing higher by 0.49% at 1.2949. The sharp rebound appears to be running ahead of itself, and instead of continuing to rise, GBP is more likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.3000 range today." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (27 Mar, spot at 1.2880), we noted, 'there has been a tentative buildup in momentum.' We indicated that 'if GBP breaks and holds below 1.2850, it could lead to a move lower to 1.2790.' We also highlighted that 'the likelihood of GBP breaking clearly below 1.2850 will remain intact as long as it remains below 1.2960 (‘strong resistance’ level).' GBP then rebounded above 1.2960, reaching a high of 1.2992. The buildup in momentum has faded. The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.2850 and 1.3050."

11:53 USD: Price action is going to be instructive – ING
The value of currencies in FX markets is typically driven by interest rate differentials, with FX effectively being seen as an extension of monetary policy.

The value of currencies in FX markets is typically driven by interest rate differentials, with FX effectively being seen as an extension of monetary policy. That is why the US Dollar did so well from 2021 onwards on the back of relatively tight Federal Reserve policy and then the US exceptionalism story over the last couple of years, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. USD price action remains on the softish side "With so much uncertainty about the current US administration's policy, we in the market are on the lookout for new narratives. For example, could FX reserve managers who hold close to $13tr in reserves be considering reducing their dollar composition? But in the meantime, could the ongoing rally in gold be telling us something about investor preferences away from the dollar? It will also be interesting to keep track of the weekly releases from the Fed in terms of the marketable holdings of US Treasuries that the central bank keeps in custody for foreign accounts." "USD price action remains on the softish side. The announcement of auto tariffs on Wednesday has not given the dollar a material lift, and we want to see how the dollar trades today, when we should get some mildly positive dollar data. Here, the expectation is that today's US core PCE deflator remains at a sticky 0.3% or even 0.4% month-on-month, suggesting the Fed's pause in easing could extend further. Currently, the market prices 17bp of rate cuts in June – something which could be priced out should inflation remain sticky." "In theory, that would help short-dated rates and the dollar – but as above, larger forces may be at play. DXY risks an intra-day run-up to 104.70, and an outside risk to 104.90 on today's inflation data. But the mood music in the market is that unless reciprocal US tariffs really shock next Wednesday, investors look minded to sell the dollar".

11:46 China exported significantly more Gold to Hong Kong in February – Commerzbank
Data published this week by the Hong Kong Statistics Authority on Gold trade with China confirmed the picture of very weak demand for Gold in China, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes Gold exports to China and Hong Kong come to a standstill in February "According to the data, 26.4 tons more Gold were delivered from China to Hong Kong in February than vice versa.

Data published this week by the Hong Kong Statistics Authority on Gold trade with China confirmed the picture of very weak demand for Gold in China, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes Gold exports to China and Hong Kong come to a standstill in February "According to the data, 26.4 tons more Gold were delivered from China to Hong Kong in February than vice versa. This was mainly due to a sharp rise in China's Gold exports to Hong Kong, which more than doubled month-on-month to 41 tons, the highest level in 10 years. In contrast, China's Gold imports from Hong Kong rose only slightly after falling to their lowest level in almost three years in January." "Net Gold exports from China to Hong Kong had therefore already occurred in January. Previously, this was only the case at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in April and May 2020, as supply chains were interrupted at the time due to the lockdowns. However, China's net Gold exports to Hong Kong almost five years ago were nowhere near the level seen last month." "Apparently, Gold demand in China was so weak in February that Gold traders exported the surplus Gold to Hong Kong and Switzerland in order to benefit from higher world market prices. Trade data from the Swiss customs authority had already painted a similar picture the previous week. Gold exports to China and Hong Kong came to a standstill in February, while Gold imports from China rose to 7 tons and from Hong Kong to 14 tons."

11:42 Gold remains well supported by political uncertainty – Commerzbank
Gold has reacted positively to the latest US tariffs, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Gold has reacted positively to the latest US tariffs, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. US economic indicators can strengthen hopes of more interest rate cuts "The price reached a new record high. In addition, the price difference between Gold on the Comex and the spot price in London has widened again, which can be explained by concerns about the US tariffs that will come into force next week as these could also affect Gold imports from Canada." "However, this also shows that the Gold rally is not quite over yet. We consider Gold to be well supported for the time being, especially as next week's potentially disappointing US economic indicators could strengthen hopes of more interest rate cuts by the Fed."

11:32 EUR/USD: Next resistance at 1.0870 is unlikely to come under threat – UOB Group
Room for Euro (EUR) to rebound further vs US Dollar (USD) and test 1.0825; the next resistance at 1.0870 is unlikely to come under threat.

Room for Euro (EUR) to rebound further vs US Dollar (USD) and test 1.0825; the next resistance at 1.0870 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, if EUR breaks 1.0825, it would mean that it is likely to trade in a range instead of declining, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Above 1.0825, EUR/USD is likely to trade in a range 24-HOUR VIEW: "The following are the excerpts from our update yesterday: 'Downward momentum has increased, albeit not much. Provided that EUR holds below 1.0795, it could test 1.0725.' Our view was incorrect, as after dipping to 1.0731, EUR rebounded strongly to 1.0821 before closing higher by 0.46% at 1.0801. Despite the rapid rise, there has been no significant increase in upward momentum. However, there is room for EUR to rebound further and test the strong resistance at 1.0825. The next resistance at 1.0870 is unlikely to come under threat. On the downside, support levels are at 1.0780 and 1.0755." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "On Wednesday (26 Mar, spot at 1.0790), we highlighted that 'as long as EUR remains below 1.0860, EUR could pull back further toward 1.0725.' After EUR dropped to 1.0743, we highlighted yesterday (27 Mar, spot at 1.0750) that 'downward momentum has increased, and if EUR breaks below 1.0725, it could lead to a deeper decline to the next support at 1.0660.' We did not anticipate the strong rebound that reached 1.0821. From here, if EUR breaks above 1.0825 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level), it would mean that it is likely to trade in a range instead of declining."

11:31 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

11:31 Portugal Consumer Confidence: -16 (March) vs previous -15.3
Portugal Consumer Confidence: -16 (March) vs previous -15.3

11:30 Portugal Business Confidence dipped from previous 2.7 to 2.4 in March
Portugal Business Confidence dipped from previous 2.7 to 2.4 in March

11:28 EUR: Tariff fatigue is evident – ING
EUR/USD held in surprisingly well yesterday – as did European automakers.

EUR/USD held in surprisingly well yesterday – as did European automakers. The Eurostoxx autos and parts index only fell 1% on the day, either because tariffs were priced in or the view that they would be negotiated away. Price action yesterday could be a precursor to next Wednesday, when the euro could take a hit once 20% across-the-board US tariffs are potentially levied on the EU, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. The 1.0730 area to hold the pressure "Notably, we are seeing some longer-term EUR/USD bullishness in the FX options market. Despite the EUR/USD spot having come steadily lower over the last week, the FX options market has seen increasing demand for longer-term euro call options." "For example, the one-year risk reversal skew – the price for a euro put option over a euro call option – has decreased to 0.34% from 0.66% over the last week. This one-year skew shifting in favour of euro calls was last seen in 2020 and would be a big talking point." "EUR/USD in theory should look vulnerable to a sticky US inflation print today. But we suspect the 1.0730 area holds, and ending the day at 1.0830/50 would tell us something about declining appetite for dollars."

11:13 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD flirts with ascending channel hurdle, around mid-$34.00s
Silver (XAG/USD) climbs its highest level since late October 2024 during the first half of the European session on Friday and currently trades around mid-$34.00s, up nearly 0.30% for the day.

11:12 ECB’s de Guindos: Trade war would mostly impact economic growth
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Friday, “trade war would mostly impact economic growth.”

11:00 Italy Business Confidence below expectations (87.5) in March: Actual (86)
Italy Business Confidence below expectations (87.5) in March: Actual (86)

11:00 Italy Consumer Confidence down to 95 in March from previous 98.8
Italy Consumer Confidence down to 95 in March from previous 98.8

10:55 Germany Unemployment Change came in at 26K, above forecasts (10K) in February
Germany Unemployment Change came in at 26K, above forecasts (10K) in February

10:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 6.3%, above forecasts (6.2%) in February
Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 6.3%, above forecasts (6.2%) in February

10:38 AUD/USD extends the range play around 0.6300 ahead of US PCE Price Index
The AUD/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the fourth straight day on Friday and remains confined in a range around the 0.6300 mark through the first half of the European session.

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A modest USD uptick and a weaker risk tone act as a headwind for the Aussie. Hopes for more stimulus from China lend support ahead of the US PCE data.The AUD/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the fourth straight day on Friday and remains confined in a range around the 0.6300 mark through the first half of the European session. The global risk sentiment took a hit in reaction to US President Donald Trump's new tariffs on imported cars and light trucks, announced on Wednesday. Adding to this, Trump's impending reciprocal tariff announcement next week and their impact on the global economy further weigh on investors' sentiment. This, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD), which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, exerts some pressure on the AUD/USD pair. The intraday USD uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. In fact, the markets are now pricing in over a 65% chance that the US central bank would lower borrowing costs by at least 25 basis points in June amid worries about the potential economic fallout from Trump's aggressive trade policies. This might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and support the AUD/USD pair. Apart from this, hopes for more stimulus from China help limit losses for the Aussie. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, due later during the North American session. The crucial US inflation data would influence expectations about the Fed's future policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

10:07 Pound Sterling gains as UK Retail Sales surprisingly grew in February
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances against its major peers on Friday, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for February and revised Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, surprisingly rose by 1% month-on-month. Economists expected the data to have declined by 0.3%. In January, retail sales grew at a robust pace of 1.4%, revised lower from 1.7%. In the 12 months to February, the consumer spending measure grew strongly by 2.2% compared to estimates of 0.5% and the former release of 0.6%, revised lower from 1%. Upbeat Retail Sales data is expected to support Bank of England (BoE) officials, who guided a "gradual and cautious" monetary easing outlook in last week's policy meeting after leaving interest rates unchanged at 4.5%. Meanwhile, revised GDP figures show that the economy expanded at a faster pace of 1.5% against the preliminary estimate of 1.4%. This week, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivered a budget update in which she announced a significant cut in welfare benefits and halved its GDP forecasts for the current year to 1%. Reeves added that amendments in welfare spending would save £4.8 billion, and she would rebuild a nearly £10 billion fiscal buffer. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling ticks higher against US Dollar The Pound Sterling edges higher to near 1.2960 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s European session. The GBP/USD pair gains slightly ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index for February, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US core PCE inflation, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, is estimated to have grown at a faster pace of 2.7% year-over-year, compared to the 2.6% increase seen in January. Month-on-month core PCE inflation is expected to have grown steadily by 0.3%. In this month's policy meeting, the Fed revised their forecast for the core PCE Index for this year to 2.8%, up from the 2.5% projected in the December meeting. Historically, the underlying inflation significantly influences market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. This time, the impact is expected to be limited as investors brace for impending reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump, which are expected to force market experts to revise their consumer inflation expectations. However, Fed officials and financial market participants had already anticipated that tariffs would be inflationary for the economy in the near term. Still, they need clarity on tariff rates to know the degree of acceleration in price pressures. US President Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the same day his recently announced 25% levy on autos will be implemented. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer seeks to secure a deal with the US before Trump unveils reciprocal tariffs. “Trade wars are no good for anyone," Chancellor Rachel Reeves said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Thursday and added that they are working intensely these next few days to try and secure “a good deal for Britain”. Market participants also expect that the impact of Trump’s tariffs will be very limited on the UK. In late February, Trump commented that he is not sure about imposing tariffs on the UK and sounded confident that a deal could be made as Keir Starmer was "very nice". Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling aims to hold 1.2930 On Friday, the Pound Sterling strives to hold the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, plotted from late-September high to mid-January low, near 1.2930 against the US Dollar. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to provide support to the pair around 1.2885. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down to near 60.00 after turning overbought above 70.00. Should a fresh bullish momentum come into action if the RSI resumes the upside journey after holding above the 60.00 level Looking down, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2770 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2615 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the October 15 high of 1.3100 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:04 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates down at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Friday, according to FXStreet data.

10:04 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session.

10:02 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data.

10:02 Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous -0.4% to -0.1% in February
Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous -0.4% to -0.1% in February

10:02 Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) up to 0% in February from previous -0.3%
Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) up to 0% in February from previous -0.3%

10:01 Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.7%) in March: Actual (2.3%)
Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.7%) in March: Actual (2.3%)

10:01 Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.1% in March from previous 0.4%
Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.1% in March from previous 0.4%

10:00 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) increased to 0.7% in March from previous 0.4%
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) increased to 0.7% in March from previous 0.4%

10:00 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) down to 2.2% in March from previous 2.9%
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) down to 2.2% in March from previous 2.9%

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in March: Actual (0.2%)
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in March: Actual (0.2%)

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) came in at 0.9% below forecasts (1.1%) in March
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) came in at 0.9% below forecasts (1.1%) in March

09:45 France Producer Prices (MoM): -0.8% (February) vs previous 0.7%
France Producer Prices (MoM): -0.8% (February) vs previous 0.7%

09:45 France Consumer Spending (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (-0.1%)
France Consumer Spending (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (-0.1%)

09:37 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Could break below 50-day EMA toward 0.5700 support
The NZD/USD pair has retraced its recent gains from the previous session, hovering around 0.5710 during early European trading on Friday.

09:36 Forex Today: Gold climbs to new record-high, markets await US inflation data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, March 28:

09:32 EUR/GBP extends losses toward 0.8300 following UK GDP, Retail Sales data
EUR/GBP continues its downward trajectory for the second straight day, trading near 0.8330 in early European hours.

09:20 Ireland Consumer Confidence declined to 67.5 in March from previous 74.8
Ireland Consumer Confidence declined to 67.5 in March from previous 74.8

09:19 GBP/JPY remains weak near 195.00 despite upbeat UK Retail Sales data
The GBP/JPY cross weakens to near 195.00 during the early European session on Friday.

09:07 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance: £-0.59B (January) vs £-2.82B
United Kingdom Total Trade Balance: £-0.59B (January) vs £-2.82B

09:04 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance: £-2.64B (January) vs £-2.82B
United Kingdom Total Trade Balance: £-2.64B (January) vs £-2.82B

09:02 UK Retail Sales unexpectedly rise 1% MoM in February vs. -0.3% expected
The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales jumped 1% month-over-month (MoM) in February after jumping 1.7% in January, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday. Markets expected a 0.3% drop in the reported month.

The UK Retail Sales jumped 1% MoM in February, a positive surprise.Monthly core Retail Sales for the UK rose 1% in February.GBP/USD keeps range near 1.2950 after strong UK consumer data.The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales jumped 1% month-over-month (MoM) in February after jumping 1.7% in January, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday. Markets expected a 0.3% drop in the reported month.developing story ....

09:01 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance below expectations (£-16.8B) in January: Actual (£-17.849B)
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance below expectations (£-16.8B) in January: Actual (£-17.849B)

09:01 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at 1%, above expectations (-0.5%) in February
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at 1%, above expectations (-0.5%) in February

09:01 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 1.5%, above expectations (1.4%) in 4Q
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 1.5%, above expectations (1.4%) in 4Q

09:01 United Kingdom Current Account came in at £-21.028B, above expectations (£-24.5B) in 4Q
United Kingdom Current Account came in at £-21.028B, above expectations (£-24.5B) in 4Q

09:00 Turkey Economic Confidence Index climbed from previous 99.2 to 100.8 in February
Turkey Economic Confidence Index climbed from previous 99.2 to 100.8 in February

09:00 United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY) above forecasts (-0.7%) in 4Q: Actual (1.8%)
United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY) above forecasts (-0.7%) in 4Q: Actual (1.8%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 2.2%, above expectations (0.5%) in February
United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 2.2%, above expectations (0.5%) in February

09:00 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance below expectations (£-16.8B) in January: Actual (£-17.85B)
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance below expectations (£-16.8B) in January: Actual (£-17.85B)

09:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey registered at -24.5, below expectations (-23) in April
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey registered at -24.5, below expectations (-23) in April

09:00 United Kingdom Current Account above forecasts (£-24.5B) in 4Q: Actual (£-21B)
United Kingdom Current Account above forecasts (£-24.5B) in 4Q: Actual (£-21B)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 1%, above forecasts (-0.3%) in February
United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 1%, above forecasts (-0.3%) in February

09:00 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in 4Q
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in 4Q

09:00 United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) above expectations (-3.2%) in 4Q: Actual (-1.9%)
United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) above expectations (-3.2%) in 4Q: Actual (-1.9%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) above expectations (0.4%) in February: Actual (2.2%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) above expectations (0.4%) in February: Actual (2.2%)

08:06 US Dollar Index maintains position near 104.50 ahead of PCE Price Index data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, hovers around 104.30.

08:00 US core PCE inflation expected to remain sticky, reinforcing Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts
The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for February on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is expected to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY in February.Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold the policy setting unchanged in May.Annual PCE inflation is forecast to hold steady at 2.5%.The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for February on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This index is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation. PCE inflation data is usually seen as a big market mover because it is taken into account by Fed officials when deciding on the next policy move. While speaking in the press conference after the March meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that it would not be the right thing to tighten policy if the inflationary impulse would go away on its own. “We will know in a couple of months if higher goods inflation in the first two months of the year was from tariffs,” he added. Anticipating the PCE: Insights into the Fed's key inflation metric The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in February, matching January’s increase. Over the last twelve months, the core PCE inflation is forecast to edge higher to 2.7% from 2.6%. Meanwhile, the headline annual PCE inflation is seen holding steady at 2.5% in this period. The Fed decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in March. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), published alongside the policy statement, highlighted that policymakers are projecting a total of 50 bps reduction in the policy rate in 2025. Additionally, the publication showed that the end-2025 PCE inflation and core PCE inflation forecasts are revised higher to 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively, from 2.5% seen in December’s SEP. Previewing the PCE inflation report, TD Securities said: “We look for core PCE prices to remain sticky, rising 0.3% m/m for a second month straight in February. Note that the core CPI rose a softer 0.23% m/m. Headline PCE inflation should come in slightly softer at 0.28%. On a y/y basis, core PCE inflation is likely to rise by a tenth to 2.7%. Personal spending likely partly recovered after contracting for the first time since March 2023.” Economic Indicator Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri Mar 28, 2025 12:30 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 2.5%Previous: 2.5%Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis How will the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index affect EUR/USD? Market participants will likely react to an unexpected reading in the monthly core PCE Price Index, which is not distorted by base effects. A print of 0.4% or higher in this data could support the US Dollar (USD) with an immediate reaction. On the other hand, a reading below 0.2% could have the opposite effect on the USD’s performance against its major rivals. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently see about a 10% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in May. The market positioning suggests that the USD doesn’t have a lot of room left on the upside, even if PCE inflation data reaffirms the policy held at the next Fed meeting. Hence, a negative print is likely to trigger a bigger market reaction. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD: “The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds slightly above 50, reflecting a lack of buyer interest. On the downside, 1.0720-1.0700 (200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 50% retracement of the October 2024–January 2025 downtrend) aligns as a key support area. In case EUR/USD drops below this region and starts using it as resistance, 1.0600 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0510 (100-day SMA) could be set as the next bearish targets. Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.0820 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement), 1.0900 (static level, round level) and 1.1000 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).” Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

07:33 USD/CHF holds above 0.8800 as traders await US PCE inflation data
The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory near 0.8825 during the early European session on Friday.

07:25 USD/CAD holds gains above 1.4300 ahead of US PCE Price Index, Canada’s GDP data
USD/CAD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.4310 during Asian hours on Friday.

06:53 EUR/USD trades with mild negative bias below 1.0800; focus remains on US PCE Price Index
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish bounce from over a three-week low, around the 1.0730 area, and edges lower during the Asian session on Friday.

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Traders now look forward to the US PCE Price Index for some meaningful impetus.The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish bounce from over a three-week low, around the 1.0730 area, and edges lower during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade with mild negative bias below the 1.0800 mark, though the downtick lacks bearish conviction as investors await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The crucial inflation data will be looked for cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future rate-cut path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the EUR/USD pair. In the meantime, some repositioning trade assists the USD to stall the previous day's retracement slide from a multi-week high and acts as a headwind for spot prices. Adding to this worries about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's tariffs and the risk-off mood lend some support to the safe-haven Greenback. The shared currency, on the other hand, is weighed down by the risk of a further escalation of trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU). Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks starting next week. This comes on top of the recent 25% flat import tax on all steel and aluminum, and the uncertainty over Trump's reciprocal tariffs set to take effect from April 2. Meanwhile, the EU has said it will retaliate by imposing tariffs on imports from the US. This raises the risk of an EU-US trade war and further exerts pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Any meaningful USD appreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of worries that US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies will dent US growth and force the Fed to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. In fact, the markets are now pricing in the possibility that the US central bank would lower borrowing costs at the June, July, and October policy meetings. This should keep the USD bulls on the defensive and help limit the downside for the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to end in the red for the second successive week. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

06:46 FX option expiries for Mar 28 NY cut
FX option expiries for Mar 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Mar 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.0500 1.2b1.0700 1.6b1.0800 3.6b1.0950 733mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 150.40 920m151.00 1.7b153.00 984mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4145 980m1.4400 686mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8300 575m0.8450 805m

06:43 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD pulls back from five-month high near $34.50
Silver price (XAG/USD) retreated after gaining over 2% in the previous session, trading near $34.30 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday.

06:36 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 8,457.70 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 8,409.01 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold increased to INR 98,648.94 per tola from INR 98,081.01 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,457.70 10 Grams 84,576.99 Tola 98,648.94 Troy Ounce 263,064.00 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains well supported by worries about Trump’s tariffs US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks set to take effect on April 3, widening the global trade war and tempering investors' appetite for riskier assets. This comes on top of a flat 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, and Trump's impending reciprocal tariff announcement next week, which fuels uncertainty and lifts the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh record high. Meanwhile, the markets are now pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower borrowing costs again at its June policy meeting amid worries about the tariffs-driven US economic slowdown. The US Dollar bulls seem rather unaffected by better-than-expected US macro data released on Thursday and mostly hawkish comments from Fed officials, lending additional support to the XAU/USD pair. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US ' Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.4% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, above the previous estimate and expected reading of 2.3% Adding to this, the US Department of Labor said that the number of US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance ticked lower to 224K compared to the previous week's revised tally of 225K. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that the current moderately restrictive monetary policy is right for an environment with an abnormal amount of uncertainty and fast changes in US government policy. Adding to this, Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that the Trump administration's aggressive trade policies will drive up US inflation, but it is unclear how persistent that upward pressure will be. Hence, the focus remains glued to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, or the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due later during the early North American session. Investors will scrutinize the crucial data to gauge the trajectory for further rate cuts, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:30 China’s President Xi: US-Sino relations should stay stable, healthy
In a meeting with the Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) of foreign companies on Friday, China’s President Xi Jinping reaffirmed that “maintaining the stable and healthy development of US-China relations is fundamental.”

06:03 Gold price advances to fresh all-time peak amid tariffs-driven global flight to safety
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts follow-through buyers for the second consecutive day and climbs to a fresh record high, around the $3,077-3,078 area during the Asian session on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid rising trade tensions.Fed rate cut bets keep the USD bulls on the defensive and also lend support.Traders now look to the US PCE Price Index for some meaningful impetus. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts follow-through buyers for the second consecutive day and climbs to a fresh record high, around the $3,077-3,078 area during the Asian session on Friday. The global risk sentiment takes a hit in reaction to US President Donald Trump's auto tariffs announced on Wednesday. Moreover, the uncertainty over Trump's impending reciprocal tariffs next week and their effect on the global economy weighs on investors' sentiment. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor that continues to drive safe-haven flows toward the precious metal. Meanwhile, the latest escalation in the trade war fuels worries that Trump's impending reciprocal tariffs will dent US growth and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and turns out to be another factor underpinning the non-yielding Gold price. The XAU/USD bulls, however, could pause for a breather amid slightly overbought conditions and ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which should offer cues about the Fed's rate cut path. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains well supported by worries about Trump’s tariffs US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks set to take effect on April 3, widening the global trade war and tempering investors' appetite for riskier assets. This comes on top of a flat 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, and Trump's impending reciprocal tariff announcement next week, which fuels uncertainty and lifts the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh record high. Meanwhile, the markets are now pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower borrowing costs again at its June policy meeting amid worries about the tariffs-driven US economic slowdown. The US Dollar bulls seem rather unaffected by better-than-expected US macro data released on Thursday and mostly hawkish comments from Fed officials, lending additional support to the XAU/USD pair. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US ' Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.4% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, above the previous estimate and expected reading of 2.3% Adding to this, the US Department of Labor said that the number of US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance ticked lower to 224K compared to the previous week's revised tally of 225K. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that the current moderately restrictive monetary policy is right for an environment with an abnormal amount of uncertainty and fast changes in US government policy. Adding to this, Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that the Trump administration's aggressive trade policies will drive up US inflation, but it is unclear how persistent that upward pressure will be. Hence, the focus remains glued to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, or the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due later during the early North American session. Investors will scrutinize the crucial data to gauge the trajectory for further rate cuts, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. Gold price needs to consolidate before the next leg up amid slightly overbought daily RSI From a technical perspective, this week's bullish resilience near the $3,000 psychological mark and the subsequent move up suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is already flashing overbought conditions and warrants some caution. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for an extension of a well-established uptrend witnessed over the past three months or so. Meanwhile, any corrective slide now seems to attract some dip-buyers near the $3,050-3,048 horizontal zone. This should help limit the downside for the Gold price near the $3,036-3,035 region. A sustained break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAU/USD below the $3,020-3,019 intermediate support, back toward the $3,000 mark. The said handle should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders, which if broken decisively should pave the way for some meaningful fall in the near term. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

05:37 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Hovers around 1.2950 near nine-day EMA
The GBP/USD pair holds steady after gains in the previous session, hovering around 1.2950 during Friday's Asian trading hours.

05:12 USD/INR strengthens ahead of US PCE inflation data
The Indian Rupee (INR) remains weak on Friday, pressured by month-end US Dollar (USD) demand from importers.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee softens in Friday’s Asian session. Month-end US Dollar demand, fears of a global trade war and higher oil prices weigh on the INR. The US February PCE inflation data will take center stage later on Friday. The Indian Rupee (INR) remains weak on Friday, pressured by month-end US Dollar (USD) demand from importers. US President Donald Trump late on Wednesday announced a 25% tariff on automotive imports, set to take effect on April 2. This, in turn, lifts the Greenback and undermines the Indian currency. Rising crude oil prices also contribute to the INR’s downside as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer.

However, positive domestic markets and foreign fund inflows might help limit the local currency’s losses. Investors will keep an eye on the US February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is due later on Friday. This report could offer some hints about the trajectory for further rate cuts after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision last week to hold its benchmark interest rate steady. Indian Rupee weakens amid month-end US Dollar demand The Indian economy is estimated to achieve a growth of 6.5% in FY25 despite considerable external headwinds, according to the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), Ministry of Finance. Trump's threat to impose 25% tariffs on all goods entering the US from countries importing Venezuelan gas or oil, brandished on Monday, could have disastrous consequences for the Indian economy, per Le Monde. Trump said that tariffs will likely be more “lenient than reciprocal,” as next week's tariff deadline looms for a number of levies to go into effect. The US economy expanded at an annual 2.4% pace in the final three months of 2024, the third release of the figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Thursday. This figure came in slightly better than the previous estimate of fourth-quarter growth. USD/INR paints a negative picture under the 100-day EMA The Indian Rupee trades in negative territory on the day. The negative view of the USD/INR pair remains in play, with the price being capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The downward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 31.0, suggesting that further downside looks favorable.

The first downside target for USD/INR is located at 85.56, the low of March 26. If bearish momentum builds below this level, it could trigger more selling and drag the pair down toward 84.84, the low of December 19, followed by 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024.

On the other hand, the crucial upside barrier to watch is in the 85.90-86.00 zone, representing the 100-day EMA and the psychological level. A strong move above the mentioned level might even pave the way for a run at 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round figure. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

04:33 EUR/JPY retreats below 163.00 following upbeat Tokyo CPI data
EUR/JPY retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 162.70 during the Asian hours.

04:31 Japanese Yen rebounds from multi-week low against USD after stronger Tokyo CPI
The Japanese Yen (JPY) drops to a nearly four-week trough against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday amid concerns that US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs could impact key domestic exports.

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The JPY bulls, however, got some respite following the release of strong consumer inflation data from Tokyo (Japan's capital city), which keeps the door open for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Moreover, the BoJ Summary of Opinions indicated that a rate hike is still on the table if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-off environment, fueled by Trump's auto tariffs late Wednesday, turns out to be another factor that underpins the safe-haven JPY and drags the USD/JPY pair below the 151.00 mark in the last hour. That said, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip-buying could lend support to the currency pair and help limit further losses. Furthermore, traders might refrain from placing directional bets and opt to wait for the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path. Japanese Yen bulls look to regain control as strong Tokyo CPI reaffirms BoJ rate hike bets US President Donald Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks to take effect on April 3. This fuels concerns that the levies would have a far-reaching impact on Japan's auto industry, which accounts for roughly 3% of gross domestic product. Data released earlier this Friday showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo rose 2.9% in March from 2.8% previous. Moreover, Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, climbed to 2.4% during the reported month from 2.2% in February. Adding to this, a core reading that excludes both volatile fresh food and energy prices grew from 1.9% in the prior month to 2.2% in March. This is now above the Bank of Japan's annual 2% target and backs the case for further interest rate hikes by the Japanese central bank. BoJ Summary of Opinions from the March meeting revealed a consensus to continue raising rates if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast. The board, however, viewed that the policy must be kept steady for the time being as the downside risks to the economy have heightened due to the US tariff policy. The global risk sentiment took a hit in reaction to Trump's auto tariffs and worries that reciprocal tariffs next week will dent US growth. This overshadowed an upward revision of the US Q4 GDP, which showed that the economy grew at a 2.4% annualized pace vs 2.3% in the previous estimate. Richmond President Thomas Barkin warned on Thursday that the economic uncertainty driven by the Trump administration's trade policy could dampen consumer and business spending, and will force the central bank into a wait-and-see approach rather than the proactive stance most investors are hoping for. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that the US central bank's challenge at this point is to choose between maintaining a tight policy stance or trying to run ahead of data that might be souring in the future. Given the outlook, Collins expects the Fed to hold rates steady for longer. Investors now look forward to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which could offer fresh cues about the Fed's future interest rate-cut path. This, in turn, will drive the US Dollar and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY technical setup backs prospects for the emergence of dip-buying at lower levels From a technical perspective, the intraday pullback from the vicinity of the monthly peak warrants caution before placing fresh bullish bets around the USD/JPY pair and positioning for further gains. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying near the 150.00 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling below the 149.85-149.80 region, however, would negate the positive bias and drag spot prices to the 149.25 support zone en route to the 149.00 round figure and the next relevant support near the 148.65 region. On the flip side, a move beyond the monthly peak, around the 151.30 area, might confront some resistance near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged near the 151.65 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 152.00 mark. The positive momentum could extend further to the 152.45-152.50 region before spot prices aim to challenge the 100-day SMA, around the 153.00 round figure. Economic Indicator Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Mar 27, 2025 23:30 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 2.9%Consensus: -Previous: 2.9%Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

03:57 NZD/USD attracts some sellers below 0.5750 on trade war concerns
The NZD/USD pair remains under selling pressure near 0.5720 during the early Asian session on Friday.

03:39 Australian Dollar holds losses as global trade concerns rise over impending US tariffs
The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, erasing gains from the previous session.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar depreciates as global trade concerns intensify ahead of potential US tariffs.A Reuters poll suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep rates steady in April.The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized grew by 2.4% in Q4 2024, exceeding the 2.3% forecast.The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, erasing gains from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair declines amid heightened risk aversion, driven by concerns over impending US auto tariffs. US President Donald Trump signed an order on Wednesday imposing a 25% tariff on auto imports, further escalating global trade tensions. These aggressive trade measures are likely to strain relations with key trading partners, even ahead of his planned reciprocal tariffs set for April 2. A Reuters poll on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicates that the central bank will hold rates steady in April. All 39 economists surveyed expect the RBA to maintain the cash rate at 4.10% on April 1. However, the median forecast predicts two rate cuts in 2025, with 25 basis point reductions in May and September, bringing the rate down to 3.60% by Q3. The RBA is expected to ease rates gradually due to persistently high core inflation at 3.2%, low unemployment, and recovering economic growth. The potential May rate cut hinges on Q1 inflation data, with approximately 75% of economists anticipating a reduction. Westpac economists believe the RBA will keep the cash rate unchanged at its April 1 policy meeting, describing it as a “dead rubber” in the broader monetary policy context. However, they maintain their forecast for a rate cut in May. Australian Dollar struggles as US Dollar steadies amid increased risk aversion The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 104.30, facing pressure due to lower US yields, standing at 3.99% for the 2-year bond and 4.35% for the 10-year bond at the time of writing. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized expanded at a rate of 2.4% in Q4 2024, surpassing the 2.3% forecast, according to data released on Thursday. Investors now await the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, set for release later on Friday. Moody’s has warned that increased tariffs and tax cuts could significantly widen government deficits, potentially leading to a US debt rating downgrade and rising Treasury yields. S&P Global cautioned that policy uncertainty in the US could dampen global economic growth, while Fitch Ratings highlighted that current tariffs may severely impact smaller economies such as Brazil, India, and Vietnam, making it more challenging for them to afford US goods. Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stated on Thursday that the Fed faces a difficult decision between maintaining a restrictive policy stance or acting pre-emptively in anticipation of deteriorating economic conditions. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin warned that economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration’s trade policies could force the Fed into a more cautious, wait-and-see approach than markets are expecting. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem made strong remarks on Wednesday, joining a growing number of Fed policymakers warning about the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Musalem cautioned that these measures are disrupting the stable US economy, increasing uncertainty, and driving inflation higher. President Trump announced plans on Wednesday to reduce tariffs on China to facilitate ByteDance's sale of TikTok's US operations. While he emphasized that the tariffs hold greater value than TikTok itself, he suggested that a minor tariff reduction could aid in finalizing the deal. Trump also hinted at the possibility of extending the deadline for the TikTok sale once again. On Wednesday, Trump suggested plans to impose tariffs on copper imports within weeks, although the Commerce Department initially had until November 2025 to decide on the matter. This development, however, provided some support for the AUD, as Australia is a key copper exporter. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2025/26 budget on Tuesday, outlining key economic forecasts and tax cuts totaling approximately A$17.1 billion across two rounds. The budget deficit is projected at A$27.6 billion for 2024-25 and A$42.1 billion for 2025-26. GDP growth is expected to reach 2.25% in the fiscal year 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. The tax cuts appear to be aimed at strengthening political support. Australian Dollar hovers around 0.6300, nine-day EMA, descending channel’s upper boundary AUD/USD hovers near 0.6290 on Friday, with technical indicators suggesting a potential bullish shift as the pair challenges its descending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains just below 50, signaling persistent bearish pressure. The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6304 acts as immediate resistance. A breakout above this level could strengthen short-term momentum, opening the door for a test of the monthly high at 0.6391, last reached on March 18, followed by a three-month high at 0.6408. On the downside, failure to hold gains may push the AUD/USD pair back into its descending channel, reinforcing the bearish outlook. In this scenario, the pair could drop toward the seven-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5, followed by the channel’s lower boundary at 0.6170. AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% -0.02% -0.18% 0.05% 0.13% 0.26% 0.03% EUR -0.01% -0.05% -0.23% 0.02% 0.11% 0.22% 0.00% GBP 0.02% 0.05% -0.18% 0.07% 0.15% 0.27% 0.06% JPY 0.18% 0.23% 0.18% 0.24% 0.32% 0.44% 0.23% CAD -0.05% -0.02% -0.07% -0.24% 0.08% 0.19% -0.01% AUD -0.13% -0.11% -0.15% -0.32% -0.08% 0.11% -0.10% NZD -0.26% -0.22% -0.27% -0.44% -0.19% -0.11% -0.21% CHF -0.03% -0.01% -0.06% -0.23% 0.01% 0.10% 0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1752 vs. 7.1763 previous
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1752 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1763 and 7.2591 Reuters estimate.

02:51 WTI drifts higher above $69.50 amid escalating trade war risks
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.70 during the early Asian session on Friday.

02:03 BoJ Summary of Opinions: Member sees inflation somewhat exceeds expectations
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from its March monetary policy meeting, with the key findings noted below.

01:35 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) dipped from previous 2.2% to 1.1% in March
Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) dipped from previous 2.2% to 1.1% in March

01:33 Japan's Tokyo CPI inflation steadies at 2.9% YoY in March
The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose 2.9% YoY as compared to 2.9% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.

The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose 2.9% YoY as compared to 2.9% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, Energy came in at 2.4% in March vs. 2.2% in February.

01:31 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.9% in March
Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.9% in March

01:31 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) up to 2.4% in March from previous 2.2%
Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) up to 2.4% in March from previous 2.2%

01:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 2.4%, above expectations (2.2%) in March
Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 2.4%, above expectations (2.2%) in March

01:16 EUR/USD snaps losing streak, but market clouds continue to gather
EUR/USD caught a breather on Thursday, rising by four-tenths of one percent and snapping a six-day losing streak that saw Fiber shed 2% peak-to-trough.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD rose 0.4% on Thursday, snapping a six-day losing streak.Fiber has drawn dangerously close to the 200-day EMA, signaling a potential reversal.Key US inflation data looms ahead, just before tariffs are due to kick in.EUR/USD caught a breather on Thursday, rising by four-tenths of one percent and snapping a six-day losing streak that saw Fiber shed 2% peak-to-trough. Tariff concerns continue to bubble away close to the center of investors’ attention spans, but Thursday saw some brief relief after US President Donald Trump focused elsewhere for the day, rather than ramping up a fresh batch of tariff proclamations via social media. US GDP for Q4 2024 grew by 2.4%, surpassing expectations of 2.3%. However, Moody’s warned that higher tariffs and tax cuts may significantly increase government deficits and potentially downgrade US debt ratings, leading to higher Treasury yields. S&P Global cautioned that US policy uncertainty could hinder global growth, while Fitch Ratings indicated that current tariffs might severely impact smaller economies like Brazil, India, and Vietnam, complicating their ability to purchase US goods. The CBO reduced its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.9%, predicting that this growth rate will persist through 2035, with inflation slowing to a near halt by 2025. They also foresee the budget deficit rising to 7.3% of GDP in 2025 without policy adjustments and that interest payments could consume 5.4% of GDP by 2055. This week’s key US data release will be Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation due on Friday. Investors will be hoping that a recent upturn in inflation figures will prove to be temporary, but median forecasts are expecting annualized PCE inflation to rise to 2.7% YoY in February. EUR/USD price forecast With Fiber’s near-term losing streak broken, EUR/USD bidders will be looking to push prices back above the current target at the 1.0900 handle. Fiber lost its foothold on the key technical level, but buyers managed to stop the bleed, at least for now. Price action is still churning chart paper just north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0700. If technical support breaks and selling pressure begins to dominate, it’s a long fall to the last swing low near 1.0350. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:06 USD/CAD posts modest gains above 1.4300, eyes on US PCE release
The USD/CAD pair posts modest gains near 1.4310 during the late American session on Thursday.

01:04 GBP/USD attempts another rebound, but technical ceiling remains
GBP/USD found the gas pedal on Thursday, rallying one-half of one percent and climbing back over 1.2900.

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The 1.3000 major price handle remains out of reach for Pound bidders, but the fight against a downside pullback resumes. UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer warned on Thursday that while US tariffs will be “crippling” to the UK economy, policymakers remain committed to fighting back against US President Donald Trump’s lopsided approach to global trade policy. PM Starmer’s comments matched similar intonations from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney as most of the US’s former trading partners turn increasingly hostile on trade talks with the Trump administration. The next batch of key UK data will be Friday’s final Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Retail Sales updates. UK GDP growth is expected to match the previous figures during the fourth quarter of 2024, but Retail Sales figures are expected to contract slightly in February. US GDP growth figures are also due on Thursday, but the non-preliminary print is unlikely to drive much momentum in either direction. This week’s key US data release will be Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation due on Friday. Investors will be hoping that a recent upturn in inflation figures will prove to be temporary, but median forecasts are expecting annualized PCE inflation to rise to 2.7% YoY in February. Related news Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney: We will fight the US tariffs with actions of our own Fed's Barkin: Fed waiting for uncertainty to clear before acting Fed's Collins: It's inevitable tariffs will increase inflation in the near term GBP/USD price forecast Despite a near-term uptick in bidding pressure, GBP/USD remains capped below the 1.3000 major price handle. Downside momentum remains limited, and buyers remain on the books, keeping Cable bolstered above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2720. GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

00:07 Canadian Dollar pares recent gains as trade war rhetoric heats up
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) shed weight on Thursday, paring away recent gains against the US Dollar (USD) as trade war rhetoric between the US and Canada ramps up.

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World leaders are quickly growing tired of US President Donald Trump’s constant waffling on tariffs he is, then isn’t, imposing across the board. Market nerves have completely frayed from reacting to President Trump’s ham-handed trade policy approach, and investors are pulling into a wait-and-see period ahead of Donald Trump’s self-imposed April 2 deadline to impose a sweeping package of tariffs. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney struck back against recent tariff headlines, cautioning that Canada is prepared to take retaliatory measures against the US. President Trump’s self-imposed deadline of April 2 to impose a sweeping tariff policy handbook that includes “reciprocal” tariffs, additional tariffs on Copper, even more additional tariffs on Canadian lumber specifically, and yet even more tariffs on countries that buy Crude Oil from Venezuela. Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar eases as Canada hearse up for tariff fight The Canadian Dollar gave up recently gained ground on Thursday, falling roughly one-third of one percent against the Greenback.Canadian PM Mark Carney: We will fight the US tariffs with actions of our own.Headway on possible tariff concessions which US President Trump may or may be willing to grant on a per-case basis remains difficult. As noted by Canadain PM Carney, nobody is really clear on what tariffs the US plans to actually enact, nor has the Trump administration been clear on what they want in exchange for tariff relief. Key US inflation figures are due on Friday. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation comes just ahead of the Trump administration’s self-imposed tariff deadline of April 2. Canadian Dollar price forecast The Canadian Dollar’s Thursday walkback saw the Loonie shed some 45 pips against the US Dollar. Market flows continue to favor the Greenback on a near-term basis as risk-off flows begin to ramp up. USD/CAD remains pinned to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.4320 as near-term momentum continues to grind sideways. The pair has remained trapped in a choppy sideways channel as the congestion grind that started four months ago continues unabated. USD/CAD daily chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

00:03 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Extends gains toward 95.30 amid overbought momentum
The AUD/JPY pair extended its winning streak on Thursday, advancing toward the 95.30 region after a strong daily performance.

AUD/JPY was seen around the 95.20 zone on Thursday, building on bullish momentum ahead of the Asian session.Key support is seen near 95.20 and 94.90, while resistance stands at 95.34 and 96.43.The AUD/JPY pair extended its winning streak on Thursday, advancing toward the 95.30 region after a strong daily performance. The pair is trading with a bullish tone after gaining traction during the European session, now sitting comfortably near the midpoint of its daily range between 94.42 and 95.40. This movement comes during Thursday’s session ahead of the Asian open, where momentum remains in the bulls’ favor despite signs of exhaustion. From a technical standpoint, the short-term picture favors buyers. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 94.50, 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 94.56, and 20-day SMA at 93.98 all point to continued upside pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a fresh buy, reinforcing the bullish structure.The Awesome Oscillator and Ultimate Oscillator (56.2) also remain neutral, hinting at the possibility of a pause or minor correction in the short term. On the downside, immediate support aligns at 95.23, followed by 94.90 and 94.65. To the upside, resistance emerges at 95.34, with further barriers at 96.43 and 96.92. Although longer-term SMAslike the 100-day at 96.92 and 200-day at 98.75 suggest lingering bearish pressure, the current short-term outlook remains tilted in favor of continued gains, barring a reversal triggered by overbought conditions. AUD/JPY daily chart

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Forex News Timeline

23:39 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Drops toward 94.20 area as bearish pressure mounts The AUD/JPY pair extended its decline on Friday, hovering near the 94.30 zone after the European session and slipping closer to the lower end of its intraday range.

23:00 Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos: -95.31B (February) vs previous -19.42B Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos: -95.31B (February) vs previous -19.42B

22:57 Australian Dollar stuck near 0.6300 as PCE data fails to shift sentiment The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains directionless during Friday’s American session, with AUD/USD hovering around the 0.6300 zone.

22:22 Canadian Dollar roils as Trump reiterates tariff threats The Canadian Dollar was dragged in both directions on Friday, rising and then falling as market flows clash with fresh threats of tariffs on Canada from US President Donald Trump.

22:19 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD pulls back from 5-month peak, bears eye $34 Silver price hits a five-month high but retreats toward the $34 figure late on Friday, as traders brace for the weekend, eyeing a busy economic schedule in the United States (US).

22:04 Gold price hits new record high near $3,090 as Fed cut bets defy trade war fears Gold price rallied sharply on Friday, hitting a new record high of $3,086 amid uncertainty over US trade policy, alongside an uptick in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.

21:31 United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions declined to $249.8K from previous $257.9K United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions declined to $249.8K from previous $257.9K

21:31 United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions increased to £44.3K from previous £29.4K United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions increased to £44.3K from previous £29.4K

21:31 United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions rose from previous 166.8K to 180.6K United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions rose from previous 166.8K to 180.6K

21:31 Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions up to €65.5K from previous €59.4K Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions up to €65.5K from previous €59.4K

21:31 Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions rose from previous ¥123K to ¥125.4K Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions rose from previous ¥123K to ¥125.4K

21:31 Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions fell from previous $-70.4K to $-77.4K Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions fell from previous $-70.4K to $-77.4K

21:31 United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $68.3K to $-53.4K United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $68.3K to $-53.4K

20:14 Mexican Peso sinks as Banxico cuts, US PCE and tariff fears boost US Dollar The Mexican Peso (MXN) prolongs its agony in the week, depreciating against the US Dollar (USD) after Banco de Mexico (Banxico) reduced interest rates but also paved the way for additional easing.

19:54 Dow Jones Industrial Average drops on fresh inflation, tariff, and recession fears The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) backslid over 700 points on Friday, falling 1.75% and tumbling to 41,500 after core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation figures accelerated in February.

19:01 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count declined to 484 from previous 486 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count declined to 484 from previous 486

18:01 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Edges toward 1.0830 as bullish momentum builds post-Europe EUR/USD extended its upward trajectory on Friday, moving near the 1.0830 region after the European session and toward the upper end of the day’s trading range.

16:36 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD refreshes five-month high near $34.60 on global trade concerns Silver price (XAG/USD) posts a fresh five-month high near $34.60 in North American trading hours on Friday.

16:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation above expectations (3.9%) in March: Actual (4.1%) United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation above expectations (3.9%) in March: Actual (4.1%)

16:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 57 below forecasts (57.9) in March United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 57 below forecasts (57.9) in March

15:52 EUR/GBP is trading below the MA at 0.8380 – Société Générale EUR/GBP attempted a cross above its 200-DMA earlier this month but has faced strong resistance near 0.8450 and has once again dipped below the MA (0.8380), Société Générale's FX analysts note.

15:52 USD/JPY remains under pressures near 150.50, US core PCE Inflation heats up The USD/JPY pair is down more than 0.3% near 150.50 in North American session on Friday.

14:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in February United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in February

14:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.8% above expectations (2.7%) in February United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.8% above expectations (2.7%) in February

14:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above forecasts (0.3%) in January: Actual (0.4%) Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above forecasts (0.3%) in January: Actual (0.4%)

14:30 United States Personal Spending came in at 0.4% below forecasts (0.5%) in February United States Personal Spending came in at 0.4% below forecasts (0.5%) in February

14:30 United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above forecasts (0.4%) in February United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above forecasts (0.4%) in February

14:30 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in February United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in February

14:30 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.5%) in February United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.5%) in February

14:30 India Current Account Balance $ came in at $-11.5B, above forecasts ($-12B) in 4Q India Current Account Balance $ came in at $-11.5B, above forecasts ($-12B) in 4Q

14:00 Mexico Jobless Rate s.a increased to 2.7% in February from previous 2.6% Mexico Jobless Rate s.a increased to 2.7% in February from previous 2.6%

14:00 Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.5%, below expectations (2.6%) in February Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.5%, below expectations (2.6%) in February

13:54 US Dollar steadies as markets look for fresh clues in the US PCE inflation release The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is currently flat to slightly higher near 104.50 at the time of writing on Friday.

13:43 EUR/USD to consolidate around 1.08-1.09 with upside risks – Danske Bank EUR/USD holds around 1.08 as Trump imposes auto tariffs and signals lenient reciprocal measures, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports.

13:38 US natural gas storage rises – ING US natural gas prices traded under pressure as the US witnessed its second straight week of inventory injection while weather forecasts remained mixed, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

13:37 USD/CNH: Likely to trade sideways between 7.2570 and 7.2820 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade sideways vs Chinese Yuan (CNH) between 7.2570 and 7.2820.

13:33 China: Buckle up for ‘Liberation Day’ – Standard Chartered The US has limited room to further hike tariffs on China under the Reciprocal Tariff Act.

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD: $658.8B (March 17) vs $654.27B India FX Reserves, USD: $658.8B (March 17) vs $654.27B

13:27 USD/JPY: Has a small chance of testing 151.30 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) could test 151.30 vs Japanese Yen (JPY); it is uncertain if it can break clearly above this level.

13:04 Italy Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.7% (February) vs previous 1.6% Italy Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.7% (February) vs previous 1.6%

13:04 Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 6.2% in February from previous 4.4% Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 6.2% in February from previous 4.4%

13:00 Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous -0.3% to 1.8% in February Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous -0.3% to 1.8% in February

13:00 Ireland Retail Sales (MoM): 0.7% (February) vs -0.5% Ireland Retail Sales (MoM): 0.7% (February) vs -0.5%

13:00 JPY: Inflation surprises to the upside – Commerzbank This morning saw the release of March inflation figures for the Tokyo area, which are traditionally a good leading indicator for inflation in Japan as a whole.

12:49 AUD: Suffering as the CNY proxy – ING Despite some ongoing reassessment of the dollar, AUD/USD has lagged, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

12:47 NZD/USD: Expected to continue to trade in a range – UOB Group New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to continue to trade in a range, likely between 0.5710 and 0.5755.

12:42 GBP: Retail sales surprise on the upside – ING UK retail sales surprise on the upside, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

12:36 Italy 5-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.93% to 3.05% Italy 5-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.93% to 3.05%

12:36 Italy 10-y Bond Auction up to 3.83% from previous 3.55% Italy 10-y Bond Auction up to 3.83% from previous 3.55%

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) declined to -0.07% in March from previous 0.2% Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) declined to -0.07% in March from previous 0.2%

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.91% in March from previous 3.55% Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.91% in March from previous 3.55%

12:22 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.4300 ahead of US PCE Inflation, Canadian GDP data The USD/CAD pair rises to near 1.4330 during European trading hours on Friday.

12:15 Gold stretches its rally to $3,086 and hits a fresh all-time high Gold price (XAU/USD) is penciling another record performance this Friday, hitting $3,086 as the new all-time high for now and trading around $3,075 at the time of writing.

12:11 AUD/USD: Likely to continue to trade between 0.6275/0.6320 – UOB Group Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to continue to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), expected to be between 0.6275/0.6320.

12:04 Eurozone Services Sentiment below forecasts (6.8) in March: Actual (2.4) Eurozone Services Sentiment below forecasts (6.8) in March: Actual (2.4)

12:04 Eurozone Industrial Confidence registered at -10.6, below expectations (-10.5) in March Eurozone Industrial Confidence registered at -10.6, below expectations (-10.5) in March

12:03 Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (-14.5) in March Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (-14.5) in March

12:03 Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator below forecasts (97) in March: Actual (95.2) Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator below forecasts (97) in March: Actual (95.2)

12:03 EUR/USD weakens ahead of US PCE Inflation, Trump’s tariff announcement EUR/USD declines to near 1.0775 during European trading hours on Friday.

12:01 Eurozone Business Climate up to -0.73 in March from previous -0.74 Eurozone Business Climate up to -0.73 in March from previous -0.74

12:01 Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 1.7% in January from previous -7.2% Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 1.7% in January from previous -7.2%

12:00 Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -2.7% to 3.8% in January Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -2.7% to 3.8% in January

12:00 Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 0.6% in February from previous 0.3% Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 0.6% in February from previous 0.3%

12:00 US crude oil inventories decline significantly – Commerzbank US crude oil inventories declined by 3.3 million barrels last week, as reported by the US Department of Energy in the middle of the week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

11:57 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.3000 range today – UOB Group Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.3000 range today vs US Dollar (USD).

11:53 USD: Price action is going to be instructive – ING The value of currencies in FX markets is typically driven by interest rate differentials, with FX effectively being seen as an extension of monetary policy.

11:42 Gold remains well supported by political uncertainty – Commerzbank Gold has reacted positively to the latest US tariffs, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

11:32 EUR/USD: Next resistance at 1.0870 is unlikely to come under threat – UOB Group Room for Euro (EUR) to rebound further vs US Dollar (USD) and test 1.0825; the next resistance at 1.0870 is unlikely to come under threat.

11:31 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

11:31 Portugal Consumer Confidence: -16 (March) vs previous -15.3 Portugal Consumer Confidence: -16 (March) vs previous -15.3

11:30 Portugal Business Confidence dipped from previous 2.7 to 2.4 in March Portugal Business Confidence dipped from previous 2.7 to 2.4 in March

11:28 EUR: Tariff fatigue is evident – ING EUR/USD held in surprisingly well yesterday – as did European automakers.

11:13 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD flirts with ascending channel hurdle, around mid-$34.00s Silver (XAG/USD) climbs its highest level since late October 2024 during the first half of the European session on Friday and currently trades around mid-$34.00s, up nearly 0.30% for the day.

11:12 ECB’s de Guindos: Trade war would mostly impact economic growth European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Friday, “trade war would mostly impact economic growth.”

11:00 Italy Business Confidence below expectations (87.5) in March: Actual (86) Italy Business Confidence below expectations (87.5) in March: Actual (86)

11:00 Italy Consumer Confidence down to 95 in March from previous 98.8 Italy Consumer Confidence down to 95 in March from previous 98.8

10:55 Germany Unemployment Change came in at 26K, above forecasts (10K) in February Germany Unemployment Change came in at 26K, above forecasts (10K) in February

10:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 6.3%, above forecasts (6.2%) in February Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 6.3%, above forecasts (6.2%) in February

10:38 AUD/USD extends the range play around 0.6300 ahead of US PCE Price Index The AUD/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the fourth straight day on Friday and remains confined in a range around the 0.6300 mark through the first half of the European session.