ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:40 US Dollar down as markets asses Trump's words
The US Dollar Index (DXY) moved lower during Wednesday’s session, lingering near the 104.00 area after President Donald Trump confirmed sweeping tariffs on global imports.

DXY trades near the 104 zone after Trump’s global tariff announcement on Wednesday.Sentiment swings as 10% import tariffs and 25% auto duties add complexity to trade outlook.Downside pressure persists below key moving averages, resistance seen near 104.10.The US Dollar Index (DXY) moved lower during Wednesday’s session, lingering near the 104.00 area after President Donald Trump confirmed sweeping tariffs on global imports. The initial surge in yields and volatility gave way to a more cautious tone as details revealed a 10% blanket tariff and an additional 25% duty on imported vehicles. The announcement, while bold, lacked the aggressive edge markets feared, prompting a partial retreat in safe-haven flows. Bearish bias persists despite neutral signals From a technical perspective, the DXY faces downside pressure as it trades around 104.00, stuck between support at 103.68 and resistance at 104.31. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 39, suggesting neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a weak buy signal. Still, the broader picture remains bearish with the 20-day (103.91), 100-day (106.72), and 200-day (104.89) Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) all pointing downward. Shorter-term indicators such as the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA—both sitting just above 104—further reinforce resistance ahead. Key levels to monitor include resistance at 104.02 and 104.10, while the downside could be challenged at 103.68. Despite some neutral signals from the Awesome Oscillator and Williams %R, the prevailing trend favors the bears unless buyers reclaim ground above 104.10. DXY daily chart

23:37 USD/JPY trades volatile as Trump imposes 24% tariffs on Japan
The USD/JPY trades volatily as US President Donald Trump announces reciprocal tariffs on Liberation Day, with duties being effective on April 3.

23:36 Fed's Kugler: I support keeping the policy rate in place as long as inflation risks remain
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Ariana Kugler added her voice to the growing chorus of Fed policymakers cautioning that rising inflation pressures, though still small, will force the Fed to stand pat on interest rates for the time being.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Ariana Kugler added her voice to the growing chorus of Fed policymakers cautioning that rising inflation pressures, though still small, will force the Fed to stand pat on interest rates for the time being. Key highlights I support keeping the current policy rate in place as long as upside risks to inflation continue Inflation expectations have risen, upcoming policy changes hold upside risk. The latest data indicate progress towards 2% inflation target may have stalled. Labor market indicators suggest continued moderation but not significant weakening. Given recent high inflation, consumer expectations may be more sensitive to further price increases. I take comfort that increases in long-term inflation expectations have so far been small.

23:33 EUR/USD jumps to two-week highs on Trump tariff announcements
EUR/USD lurched higher late Wednesday, tapping its highest bids in ten consecutive trading days after market sentiment reacted positively to better-than-expected tariff levels from the Trump administration.

23:23 Gold price seesaws above $3,100 as Trump announces tariffs
Gold price tumbles and trades volatile within the $3,100 - $3135 as US President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs worldwide, with the details pending of being released.

22:41 Gold holds near all-time high, eyes on Trump’s tariff reveal
Gold price extends its gains on Wednesday, remaining near all-time highs as market participants wait for US President Donald Trump's tariff plans at around 20:00 GMT.

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XAU/USD trades at $3,122, gaining 0.28%. US Liberation Day is finally here. Trump is expected to unveil reciprocal tariffs, which are aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with its partners. Last week, he announced a 25% duty on imported automobiles and the tariff suspension on Mexico and Canada is expected to end on April 3. A day ago, media reports suggested that three options are under discussion: a blanket tariff of 20%, tiered tariffs, and targeted duties applied on a country-by-country basis. Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper commented, “If the tariffs are not as extensive as feared, some positioning could be unwound in Gold, in which case the physical market floor will be key in setting the downside.” Since US President Donald Trump won the election, Gold prices initially dipped before rallying and gaining over 23% from the November 14 low, when XAU/USD hit $2,536. Bullion prices have extended their gains despite rising US yields. However, the broad weakness of the US Dollar (USD) kept Gold prices holding firm above the $3,100 mark. US economic data has taken a backseat amid tariff jitters. ADP revealed that private companies hired more people than expected, while Factory Orders expanded above estimates but showed some signs of slowing down. Ahead this week, traders are focusing on the Trump tariff announcement, the ISM Services PMI for March, Nonfarm Payroll figures, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech. Daily digest market movers: Gold price edges up amid high US yields The US 10-year T-note yield rises three basis points to 4.19%. US real yields edge up three bps to 1.862%, according to US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields. The ADP National Employment Report for March showed that businesses added 155K jobs, beating expectations of just over 105K and significantly higher than February’s 84K increase, signaling continued strength in private sector hiring. Meanwhile, Factory Orders rose 0.6% MoM in February, slightly above the 0.5% forecast, though slowing from January’s 1.8% surge. Looking ahead, Donald Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners during an address in the White House Rose Garden, a move likely to stir market volatility and global trade tensions. The latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model indicates that the GDP for Q1 2025 is expected to contract by 3.7%, down from the 2.8% estimate on March 28. Money market futures pricing in more than 73 basis points of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price retreats from all-time highs near $3,150 The uptrend in Gold prices remains intact; however, buyers' lack of commitment to push prices to record highs keeps the yellow metal trading sideways. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 70 level, indicating overbought territory. Traders should note that, due to the strength of the trend, the most extreme reading can reach 80. Therefore, further upside is anticipated. If XAU/USD stays above $3,100, buyers maintain control. An extension of the rally would trigger a breach of the record high at $3,149, followed by the $3,200 mark. Conversely, a drop below $3,100 would expose the March 20 high, which has since become support at $3,057, followed by the $3,000 mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

21:46 US Dollar edges lower as traders await clarity on tariffs
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, is trading below the 104.00 area during Wednesday’s session amid heightened caution ahead of the White House’s official tariff announcement.

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Despite stronger than expected ADP Employment Change data for March, the Greenback remains under pressure. Technical signals are mixed with some indicators suggesting a bullish attempt, while longer-term moving averages tilt bearish. Daily digest market movers: US Dollar stuck in limbo before tariff wave The ADP Employment Change report showed 155K new private-sector jobs were added in March, beating forecasts of 105K. ADP’s chief economist noted the reading reflected resilience in hiring despite policy uncertainty and cautious consumer sentiment. Market participants are bracing for Trump’s 20:00 GMT announcement on “Liberation Day” tariffs. Speculation swirls around potential 20% blanket tariffs with no exemptions currently confirmed. A heavy tariff package could weigh on growth and fuel inflation, risking stagflation concerns and Fed policy shifts. Markets may react more strongly on Thursday once tariff details and exemptions are confirmed. Stocks and Crude Oil are under pressure, while Gold climbs as traders seek safety. Fed rate cut odds for May remain low, but volatility may rise depending on incoming data and trade signals. Broader USD sentiment is soft, reflected in falling demand for bullish option positions. The DXY’s direction is increasingly tied to global growth fears and safe-haven flows. ADP data often serves as a precursor to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which may carry more weight for Fed watchers. Bonds rose across the curve as traders reposition ahead of potential growth-impacting measures. The Greenback struggles to break out despite support from better labor figures. Technical analysis The US Dollar Index (DXY) is under moderate downside pressure as it trades near the 104.00 threshold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still issues a buy signal, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral at 39.40, reflecting lack of momentum. Most moving averages suggest a bearish bias: the 20-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) along with the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) all point lower. The Williams Percent Range and Awesome Oscillator are both neutral. Immediate resistance lies near 104.022 and 104.105, while downside support is seen around 104.169, 104.128 and the key 103.90 area. A sustained drop below this level may unlock further losses toward the 103.00 handle. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

21:44 Forex Today: The Services sector takes centre stage
The Greenback traded on the back foot on Wednesday, receding markedly against the backdrop of increasing prudence ahead of President Trump’s announcements on reciprocal tariffs.

The Greenback traded on the back foot on Wednesday, receding markedly against the backdrop of increasing prudence ahead of President Trump’s announcements on reciprocal tariffs.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 3: The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke below the 104.00 region amid a pronounced pullback and a marginal bounce in US yields across the curve. Balance of Trade results are due along with the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the final S&P Global Services PMI, the Challenger Jon Cuts, the ISM Services PMI and speeches by the Fed’s Cook and Jefferson.EUR/USD gathered steam and advanced past the 1.0870 barrier, leaving behind wo daily pullbacks in a row. The final HCOB Services PMI in Germany and the euro area will be published, seconded by Producer Prices in the bloc, the ECB Accounts and speeches by the ECB’s De Guindos and Schnabel.GBP/USD added to Tuesday’s small gains and retested the 1.2980 region, or four-day highs. The final S&P Global Services PMI will be the sole data release across the Channel.USD/JPY navigated with decent gains, regaining the 150.00 hurdle amid markets’ cautious stance prior to Trump’s announcements. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment and the final Jibun Bank Services PMI are expected on the Japanese calendar.AUD/USD advanced to weekly peaks north of the key 0.6300 hurdle, building on Tuesday’s gains. The final S&P Global Services PMI is due, seconded by Balance of Trade results and the RBA’s Financial Stability Report (FSR).Prices of WTI traded in an upbeat tone, flirting with the $72.00 mark per barrel despite a large build in US inventories and rising caution ahead of Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements.Prices of Gold regained composure, leaving behind Tuesday’s decline and keeping the trade near recent record peaks past the $3,100 mark per troy ounce. Silver prices advanced modestly, retesting the area above the key $34.00 mark per ounce following three daily drops in a row.

20:58 Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way
United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived.

20:53 Mexican Peso slips as traders await Trump’s Liberation Day
The Mexican Peso (MXN) remains on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD), trading with losses of more than 0.50% as traders await US President Donald Trump's Liberation Day announcement later today.

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At the time of writing, USD/MXN is exchanging hands at 20.47. The market mood improved, yet the emerging market currency remains stagnant as market participants await Trump’s tariff announcement. Although there is a chance that the fentanyl-related tariffs on Canada and Mexico may be lifted, there is a risk that the 25% tariffs on cars could be extended to United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) countries. In the meantime, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said she would not impose tit-for-tat tariffs, sparking a dip in the USD/MXN pair, which buyers bought, keeping the exotic pair within familiar levels. Mexico’s Finance Ministry announced that it would narrow the fiscal deficit in 2026. According to Bloomberg, “Sheinbaum’s administration said it will target a budget gap of 3.2% to 3.5% of gross domestic product next year, smaller than this year’s ambitious estimate of 3.9% to 4%.” The ministry revised its 2025 growth forecast downward to around 1.5%-2.3%, a very optimistic scenario compared to Banco de Mexico’s (Banxico) 0.6% estimate. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicts Mexico’s GDP will contract by 1.3%. Data in the US revealed a strong labor market, with companies hiring more people than expected by economists, surpassing the February reading. At the same time, Factory Orders expanded above forecasts but dipped compared to January’s figures. Ahead this week, Mexico’s economic agenda will feature Gross Fixed Investment figures and Consumer Confidence data. In the US, traders are focusing on the Trump tariff announcement, the ISM Services PMI for March, Nonfarm Payroll figures, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso falls on uncertainty about tariffs Mexico’s Business Confidence deteriorated sharply in February, according to INEGI. Meanwhile, S&P Global reported that manufacturing activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month. Banxico’s Governor, Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, stated that the central bank will remain attentive to US trade policies and their impact on the country, with a primary focus on inflation, as she noted in an interview with El Financiero. In March, the ADP National Employment Report revealed that businesses added 155,000 people to the workforce, exceeding the forecast of more than 105,000 jobs and up from the 84,000 jobs created in February. Other data showed that Factory Orders in February exceeded estimates of 0.5% and expanded 0.6% MoM, down from 1.8% in January. At 20:00 GMT, Donald Trump is expected to announce the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on trading partners in the White House Rose Garden. JP Morgan supports an additional 50 bps cut in Mexico due to the risks of an imminent recession, according to analyst Steven Palacio. Palacio added that Mexico would be tapped into a recession spread by tariffs and “uncertainty surrounding their implementation.” USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso treads water as USD/MXN climbs above 20.40 USD/MXN remains upwardly biased, trading near its weekly high of 20.54, yet is contained due to uncertainty about the outcome of the tariff. If duties are applied with no exemptions, the Peso could depreciate sharply. In that outcome, the pair could challenge the March 4 high at 20.99, followed by the February 3 peak of 21.28. On the other hand, if Mexico is exempt from tariffs due to the US adhering to the USMCA free trade rules, USD/MXN could dip below the first support level, seen at the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) around 20.35/36, followed by the 20.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at 19.76. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

20:34 Dow Jones Industrial Average gains ground ahead of Trump’s tariff announcements
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) took a step higher in early Tuesday trading, climbing 350 points and adding 0.85% from the day’s opening bids as investors lean into bets that the Trump administration’s long-awaited “reciprocal” tariffs package will be nowhere near as devastating as US President Donald Trump has been threatening.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Dow Jones rose on Tuesday, climbing 350 points as markets barrrel toward tariff deadline.The Trump administration is slated to outline its long-threatened package of tariffs.Tariff package announcement is set for 1900 GMT (4 pm EST).The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) took a step higher in early Tuesday trading, climbing 350 points and adding 0.85% from the day’s opening bids as investors lean into bets that the Trump administration’s long-awaited “reciprocal” tariffs package will be nowhere near as devastating as US President Donald Trump has been threatening. Donald Trump campaigned on promises of using widespread tariffs against all of the US’s trading partners to force better deals out of the rest of the free world. April 2: Tariff Day The Trump administration has been in the White House for 72 days, and is still grappling with how to execute Donald Trump’s “day one” tariffs after several delays. Despite an uptick in volatility and souring risk sentiment in the face of President Trump attempting to kick off a global trade war, markets are overall betting that tariffs will either be delayed for a fifth straight time, or will be nowhere near as high as President Trump has been threatening. ADP Employment Change numbers for March came in much stronger than expected, rising 155K new payroll positions compared to February’s revised print of 84K. The upswing flouts rising fears of a weakening labor market. However, the key labor figure will be Friday’s upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Although the ADP payroll figures have long been held as a “preview” of NFP net job gains, the correlation between the two figures has been broken for years. Stock news Equity markets are broadly higher as investors barrel toward the Trump administration’s self-styled “Liberation Day”. The Dow Jones added nearly a full percent from Wednesday’s opening bids, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 megacap equity index also rallied 52 points to add 0.85%. The Nasdaq Composite tech-heavy index surged 1.3%, climbing 230 points.Read more stock news: Tesla stock rallies despite Q1 delivery 'disaster'Dow Jones price forecast Wednesday saw a bullish spark from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with bids pushing back above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the 42,000 handle. Macro flows are dominating the major equity index on Wednesday, crimping technical readings. An extended upshot will see the Dow Jones climb back over the 50-day EMA near 42,775. On the low side, a fresh plunge below the 200-day EMA will set up price action for a fresh slide to March’s swing low below 40,800. Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

19:00 Russia Unemployment Rate above forecasts (2.3%) in February: Actual (2.4%)
Russia Unemployment Rate above forecasts (2.3%) in February: Actual (2.4%)

18:52 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls push pair near 1.0900 as bullish momentum strengthens
EUR/USD extended its upward trajectory on Wednesday, rising toward the upper end of its recent range and was last seen near the 1.0900 zone following the European session.

EUR/USD trades near the 1.0900 zone after solid gains on Wednesday's session post-European hours.Despite mixed signals from momentum indicators, price remains supported by a strong bullish moving average structure.Support lies at 1.0841 and 1.0824; upside capped by recent highs near 1.0860.EUR/USD extended its upward trajectory on Wednesday, rising toward the upper end of its recent range and was last seen near the 1.0900 zone following the European session. The pair posted a solid gain for the day as the market held on to risk-positive sentiment, with technical indicators backing a bullish short-term view despite mixed signals from oscillators. Daily chart The technical outlook remains constructive overall. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 60.50, neutral but rising. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flashes a sell signal, while the Williams Percent Range (WPR) at -45.00 and Awesome Oscillator near 0.01 remain neutral, highlighting a lack of conviction in momentum despite rising price action. However, the structure of the moving averages supports a bullish view. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0841, the 100-day at 1.0521, and the 200-day at 1.0731 are all aligned to the upside. Additionally, the 10-day EMA and 10-day SMA, both around the 1.0810–1.0820 zone, further reinforce the upward bias. On the downside, immediate support levels are noted at 1.0841, 1.0840, and 1.0824. Resistance, meanwhile, is concentrated near the 1.0861 area, where the top of the daily range may limit further advances unless momentum picks up.

18:26 GBP/USD climbs past 1.2950 as traders brace for Trump’s tariff announcement
The Pound Sterling advances early during the North American session against the US Dollar as traders await US President Trump's tariff announcement, which could potentially spur a global economic slowdown.

17:49 USD/JPY trades cautiously around 149.50 with Trump’s tariffs on the horizon
The USD/JPY pair trades with caution around 149.50 during North American trading hours on Wednesday.

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 6.165M, above expectations (-2M) in March 28
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 6.165M, above expectations (-2M) in March 28

17:15 USD/CAD edges higher to near 1.4330, Trump’s tariff announcement in focus
The USD/CAD pair ticks higher to near 1.4330 in Wednesday’s North American session.

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) above forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.6%)
United States Factory Orders (MoM) above forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.6%)

16:54 ECB's Holzmann: Rates are at neutral level, no reason to become accommodative
European Central Bank policymaker Robert Holzmann, who dissented to the ECB's decision to cut key rates by 25 basis points after the March meeting, argued on Wednesday that they don't need to become more accommodative, per Reuters.

16:05 GBP off early session low – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is also quiet and extending is recent consolidation around 1.29 ahead of Wednesday’s US tariff announcement, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is also quiet and extending is recent consolidation around 1.29 ahead of Wednesday’s US tariff announcement, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP is holding within recent ranges "There have been no fundamental releases or comments from BoE policymakers, leaving market participants squarely focused on sentiment and the market tone. As with EUR (and the ECB), the UK rates markets are pricing about 20bpts of easing for the next BoE meeting on May 8." "Policymakers have been shifting toward a more neutral stance and a fade in expectations for BoE cuts should offer some near-term support to GBP. The RSI is flattened out just above 50 (neutral), offering little in terms of momentum. Recent congestion has been centered in the low 1.29s roughly bound between the mid-1.28s and levels just above 1.30."

16:04 Singapore Purchasing Managers Index: 50.6 (March) vs previous 50.7
Singapore Purchasing Managers Index: 50.6 (March) vs previous 50.7

16:03 EUR extends tight consolidation around 1.08 – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is extending its tight consolidation around 1.08 ahead of Wednesday’s US tariff announcement, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is extending its tight consolidation around 1.08 ahead of Wednesday’s US tariff announcement, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. The 1.08 level remains a magnet for near-term congestion "Near-term price action is expected to be driven by sentiment, given the absence of any high-level data releases. Fundamentally, yield spreads offer little in terms of direction as they have traded sideways over the past two weeks or so." "Comments from ECB President Lagarde have been supportive, endorsing policymakers’ recent shift toward a pause. Markets are still pricing nearly 20bpts of easing for the April 17 meeting and a fade in expectations for cuts should offer EUR support." "The 1.08 level remains a magnet for near-term congestion as we note recent support in the mid-1.07s and resistance around 1.0850. The RSI continues to soften and is hovering just above the neutral level at 50. The broader, one month range is bound between support in the low 1.07 area and the mid-1.09s."

16:01 CAD is trading steady to slightly lower – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed—and a relative, if minor, underperformer versus many of its peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed—and a relative, if minor, underperformer versus many of its peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Canada and Mexico remain in communication on tariff strategy "The CAD picked up solid ground yesterday amid hopes that Canada and Mexico could win tariff exemptions but that seems unlikely, at least for the moment. Bloomberg reporting yesterday evening did suggest, however, that the White House was still considering 'multiple proposals' for its tariff plan even at this very late stage, including a tiered and a 'customized' approach." "Canada and Mexico remain in communication on tariff strategy, which is a minor plus at least as both sides can act to exert pressure on Washington. PM Carney said Canada’s response to new tariffs will be 'very deliberate'." "The USD is picking up a little ground in early trade and short-term price signals suggest the floor for spot is firming up at 1.4290/00 intraday. Yesterday’s drop in the USD from the peak above 1.44 leaves a big, bearish outside range candle on the 6-hour chart and a bearish 'engulfing' line on the daily candle chart. That should mean firm resistance at 1.4410/20 intraday at least."

15:59 USD edges lower ahead of tariff news – Scotiabank
Welcome to Liberation Day. Tariffs are front and center for markets ahead of this afternoon’s announcement from the White House, due around 4pm from the Rose Garden, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Welcome to Liberation Day. Tariffs are front and center for markets ahead of this afternoon’s announcement from the White House, due around 4pm from the Rose Garden, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD slips as markets wate for tariff announcement "Those tariffs become effective 'immediately', the White House said yesterday. It remains to be seen exactly what comes today—all indications suggest tariff policy was still being put together at the 11th hour—but broadly applied, 20% tariffs seem very possible, if not likely. Recall that 25% auto tariffs take effect tomorrow. Hefty tariffs have negative implications for the US economy—slower growth and higher prices across the economy and a likely push for 'operational efficiencies' among businesses." "Today’s tariffs need to come in much lighter than 20% and with exemptions to 'surprise' markets positively and lift risk appetite. It’s not obvious that the Trump administration can or will go that route, however. High beta FX and risk assets are prone to weakness on tariff news but upside potential for the USD is limited—given growth risks and eroding US 'exceptionalism'." "Broader USD sentiment, reflected by the declining premium for calls over similar delta puts is the softest since September, just before the dollar started to rally significantly. The DXY is softer today but movement among the major currencies is limited as investors are generally sidelined ahead of the tariff announcement. DXY losses will extend below technical support at 103.90. Stocks, bonds and crude are softer while gold is firmer, below yesterday’s peak."

15:15 United States ADP Employment Change above forecasts (105K) in March: Actual (155K)
United States ADP Employment Change above forecasts (105K) in March: Actual (155K)

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.5%, below expectations (2.3%) in February
Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.5%, below expectations (2.3%) in February

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (-0.1%)
Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (-0.1%)

14:50 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps to near $34 as Trump’s tariff plan improves safe-haven demand
Silver price (XAG/USD) advances to near $34.00 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

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The white metal moves higher as investors rush to safe-haven assets amid caution ahead of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump at 20:00 GMT. US President Trump is poised to announce hefty tariffs on his trading partners in an attempt to fix what he calls unfair trade participants to make “America wealthy again”. According to the Washington Post, the White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports to the US. Theoretically, the appeal of the US Dollar (US) should have increased in an uncertain economic environment, but it is struggling to attract bids as Trump’s tariffs will also weigh on the US economic outlook. Additionally, Trump’s tariffs will also boost inflationary pressures in the near term. Such a scenario would allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% for longer. Historically, Fed’s restrictive monetary policy stance bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver. In today’s session, investors will also focus on the ADP Employment Change data for March, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. The agency is expected to show that private employers added 105K fresh workers, higher than 77K addition recorded in February. Silver technical analysis Silver price resumes its upside move towards the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.44 continues to provide support to the Silver price. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to break above 60.00. A bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above 60.00. Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier. Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

14:46 US Dollar consolidates further ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, consolidates for a second day in a row this week and hovers near 104.20 at the time of writing on Wednesday.

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US President Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index trades stable around 104.10, while looking for any sort of driver. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, consolidates for a second day in a row this week and hovers near 104.20 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The Greenback remains sidelined just hours before United States (US) President Donald Trump announces the reciprocal tariff implementation at the White House at 20:00 GMT. The White House and the Trump administration are very sketchy in details, and until now, it remains unclear what the tariffs will mean for markets. On the economic data releases, this Wednesday’s main event will be the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) private sector employment data. As per usual in the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) week, the ADP number precedes the official NFP number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Although there is no real correlation between the NFP and the ADP numbers for the private sector, it could set the tone for expectations for Friday. Daily digest market movers: ADP warm up towards NFPAt 12:15 GMT, the ADP Employment Change data for March is due. Expectations are for a jump to 105,000 new employment compared to 77,000 in February. At 14:00 GMT, the February Factory Orders data will be released. Expectations are for a softer increase of 0.5% compared to the previous 1.7% seen in January. At 20:00 GMT, the main event for this Wednesday, US President Donald Trump will announce wide-ranging tariffs in an event he named "Liberation Day." The moves could significantly affect global trade and financial assets. Equities are in the red across the board and the globe. Overall, there are minor losses in Equities, while Europe faces the most substantial ones with the German Dax down over 1%. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of interest rates remaining at the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in May’s meeting is 85.5%. For June’s meeting, the odds for borrowing costs being lower stand at 74.4%. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.17%, just above its fresh three-week low. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Unclear impact of ‘Liberation Day’The US Dollar Index (DXY) could see again no big moves or changes even after Trump’s announcement of “Liberation Day”. Traders are still left in the dark about the impact of all these levies and tariffs on the US and the global economy. While a local US recession would see a substantially lower US Dollar, a global slowdown would benefit and strengthen the Greenback as a safe haven asset. In that case, a return to the 105.00 round level could still occur in the coming days, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) roughly converging at that point and reinforcing this area as a strong resistance at 104.93. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, could limit the upward momentum. On the downside, the 104.00 round level is the first nearby support, although it looks bleak after being tested since Friday. If that level does not hold, the DXY risks falling back into that March range between 104.00 and 103.00. Once the lower end at 103.00 gives way, watch out for 101.90 on the downside. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous -2% to -1.6% in March 28
United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous -2% to -1.6% in March 28

13:55 USD/CNH: Major resistance at 7.2980 is unlikely to come into view – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could rise to 7.2880 before levelling off; the major resistance at 7.2980 is unlikely to come into view.

US Dollar (USD) could rise to 7.2880 before levelling off; the major resistance at 7.2980 is unlikely to come into view. In the longer run, upward momentum has slowed; a breach of 7.2500 would indicate that USD has moved into a range trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Upward momentum has slowed24-HOUR VIEW: "USD dropped briefly to 7.2532 two days ago and then rebounded. Yesterday, we noted that 'the decline did not lead to a clear increase in downward momentum.' We expected USD to 'trade in a 7.2550/7.2750 range.' However, instead of trading in a range, USD rose to 7.2842, closing at 7.2814 (+0.22%). Upward momentum has increased, albeit not much. Today, USD could rise to 7.2880 before levelling off. The major resistance at 7.2980 is unlikely to come into view. Support levels are at 7.2750 and 7.2640."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (01 Apr, spot at 7.2640) remains valid. As highlighted, although upward momentum has slowed, only a breach of 7.2500 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that USD has moved into a range trading phase. As long as USD is not breached, there is a chance for USD to rise to 7.2980."

13:52 S&P 500: Next downward objectives are at 5400/5390pts and 5300pts – Societe Generale
S&P 500 has so far defended the low of last down leg near 5500pts, which is also an ascending trend line connecting troughs of April 2024/August 2024, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

S&P 500 has so far defended the low of last down leg near 5500pts, which is also an ascending trend line connecting troughs of April 2024/August 2024, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. Index to test the 200-DMA near 5780/5800pts in the near term"A brief bounce is taking shape, but it will be interesting to see if the index can overcome recent pivot high and the 200-DMA near 5780/5800pts. Inability to cross this can result in persistence of decline. Below 5500pts, next objectives could be located at projections of 5400/5390pts and 5300pts."

13:48 USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a range between 149.05 and 150.20 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 149.05 and 150.20 vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD appears to have moved into a 148.40/151.00 consolidation range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 149.05 and 150.20 vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD appears to have moved into a 148.40/151.00 consolidation range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD/JPY seems to be consolidating for the time being24-HOUR VIEW: "USD briefly plummeted to 148.68 on Monday and then rebounded to close largely unchanged at 149.95 (+0.09%). Yesterday, Tuesday, when USD was at 149.80, we highlighted that 'the rebound in oversold conditions suggests instead of continuing to decline, USD is more likely to trade in a range today between 149.00 and 150.50.' USD then traded in a 148.95/150.14 range, before closing at 149.61, lower by 0.23%. The price action provides no further clues, and we continue to expect range-trading, likely between 149.05 and 150.20." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Not much has changed since our update yesterday (01 Apr, spot at 149.80). As highlighted, USD 'appears to have moved into a consolidation phase and it is expected to trade in a 148.40/151.00 range for now.”

13:43 USD/CNH: Inability to hold 7.22 can lead to a deeper pullback – Societe Generale
USD/CNH recently tested the 200-DMA at 7.22 resulting in a brief rebound, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

USD/CNH recently tested the 200-DMA at 7.22 resulting in a brief rebound, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. Next objectives can be located at 7.17/7.16"It has crossed the descending trend line drawn since January highlighting possibility of extension in bounce. Recent pivot high of 7.31 is a short-term hurdle. If the pair fails to overcome it, the phase of correction could extend. Inability to hold 7.22 can lead to a deeper pullback. Next objectives could be located at projections of 7.17/7.16."

13:41 ECB's Schnabel: Trade fragmentation is structurally harmful for economic growth and inflation
European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday that trade fragmentation is structurally harmful for economic growth and inflation, per Reuters.

13:39 NZD/USD: Above 0.5725, weakness in NZD has stabilised – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could continue to rebound but any advance is likely part of a 0.5670/0.5725 range. In the longer run, if NZD breaks above 0.5725, it would mean that the weakness has stabilised, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could continue to rebound but any advance is likely part of a 0.5670/0.5725 range. In the longer run, if NZD breaks above 0.5725, it would mean that the weakness has stabilised, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.NZD can continue to rebound today24-HOUR VIEW: "Following the sharp drop in NZD two days ago, we indicated yesterday that 'the oversold decline has not stabilised.' We also indicated that NZD 'could drop further, but a sustained break below 0.5640 is unlikely.' Our expectations did not turn out, as NZD rebounded to close higher by 0.40% at 0.5701. While NZD could continue to rebound today, any advance is likely part of a 0.5670/0.5725 range. In other words, NZD is unlikely to break clearly above 0.5725." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our view to negative last Wednesday (26 Mar, spot at 0.5730), indicating that NZD 'is likely to edge lower toward the major support zone between 0.5650 and 0.5670.' After NZD plummeted below the support zone, we indicated yesterday (01 Apr, spot at 0.5670) that 'the rapid increase in momentum suggests NZD is likely to continue to head lower.' However, we pointed out, 'the next support at 0.5610 may not come into view so quickly.' We did not anticipate NZD to rebound to 0.5704. From here, if NZD breaks above 0.5725 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level from yesterday), it would mean that the weakness in NZD has stabilised."

13:21 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rallies to near 0.5750
The NZD/USD pair advances to near 0.5745 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD jumps to near 0.5750 as antipodeans outperform ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement.Donald Trump is expected to announce massive tariff measures for China.Trump’s tariffs will be bad for the global economy, including the US.The NZD/USD pair advances to near 0.5745 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair strengthens as antipodeans are outperforming their peers despite firm expectations that they will have collateral damage from reciprocal tariffs by the United States (US) that will be announced by President Donald Trump later in the day. New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.09% -0.16% -0.15% 0.08% -0.49% -0.76% 0.05% EUR 0.09% -0.04% -0.06% 0.19% -0.38% -0.68% 0.16% GBP 0.16% 0.04% 0.02% 0.23% -0.33% -0.61% 0.20% JPY 0.15% 0.06% -0.02% 0.21% -0.37% -0.65% 0.17% CAD -0.08% -0.19% -0.23% -0.21% -0.57% -0.83% -0.03% AUD 0.49% 0.38% 0.33% 0.37% 0.57% -0.28% 0.53% NZD 0.76% 0.68% 0.61% 0.65% 0.83% 0.28% 0.82% CHF -0.05% -0.16% -0.20% -0.17% 0.03% -0.53% -0.82% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote). Market participants expect Trump to slap hefty tariffs on China in addition to 20% levies, applied since his return to the White House. Higher import duties on China will weaken its economic outlook, given that China is the largest trading partner of the US. The impact of Trump’s tariff will be indirect on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), given that the kiw economy relies significantly on its exports to the US. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades cautiously ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement. Investors expect that the new suite of tariffs by Trump will also impact the US economic growth and bring a resurgence in inflationary pressures in the near term. NZD/USD trades inside the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants. The flat border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the January 24 high of 0.5795, while the upward-sloping border is placed from the February low of 0.5516. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) wobbles near the pair around 0.5725, which indicates a sideways trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00, which indicates a volatility contraction. An upside move would appear if the asset breaks the March high of 0.5832, which will drive it towards the round-level resistance of 0.5900 and the November 29 high of 0.5930. On the flip side, the Kiwi pair could revisit the 13-year low of 0.5470 and decline further to near the round-level support of 0.5400 if it breaks below the February low of 0.5516. NZD/USD daily chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

13:07 Estimating the impact of US-related uncertainty – Standard Chartered
Despite ‘Liberation Day’ announcements, we expect uncertainty to remain high over the coming months. Heightened trade policy uncertainty could potentially lower global GDP by c.1.0-1.5%. Most of this drop would reflect a decline in US output and that of other major economies.

Despite ‘Liberation Day’ announcements, we expect uncertainty to remain high over the coming months. Heightened trade policy uncertainty could potentially lower global GDP by c.1.0-1.5%. Most of this drop would reflect a decline in US output and that of other major economies. The impact on interest rates and exchange rates is insignificant and reflects other factors at play, Standard Chartered's economist Madhur Jha reports. No ‘liberation’ from uncertainty"Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has risen significantly in recent months and we expect this to persist even after 2 April as countries try to negotiate better deals with the US. The negative impact of tariffs has been well documented. However, it is worth considering the impact of heightened TPU for most economies.""Academic studies suggest three main channels of lower global growth from heightened uncertainty: a fall in trade and capital flows; a fall in business investment; and lower consumer confidence. The recent sharp rise in TPU could potentially reduce global GDP growth by 1.5ppts. However, the impact is likely to be smaller as countries take offsetting measures.""We also use two-country structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis to estimate the impact on selected EM economies of rising uncertainty related to US economic policy. The impulse response functions suggest a drop in output and CPI but these are small and short-lived. There is no significant impact on short-term interest rates. Currencies for some economies like Mexico and Indonesia weaken in response to heightened TPU, suggesting other factors, such as central bank credibility, are at play."

12:55 Norges Bank to stand pat for the time being – Commerzbank
As we expected, Norges Bank left the policy rate unchanged last week. After all, the interest rate path from December did not necessarily imply an interest rate cut in March.

As we expected, Norges Bank left the policy rate unchanged last week. After all, the interest rate path from December did not necessarily imply an interest rate cut in March. The new interest rate path now signals slower and smaller interest rate cuts over the projected time horizon until the end of 2027. The policy rate is still expected to be lowered this year, but Norges Bank is not giving any details on the timing, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.NOK to remain stable in the coming months"Norges Bank justifies its stance by saying that inflation has picked up and been markedly higher than expected; if the policy rate is lowered prematurely, prices may continue to rise rapidly. In this respect, Norges Bank is reacting to the high inflation rates at the beginning of the year. We had already stated that inflation would have to surprise on the downside sharply in the coming months – which is not expected – for it to fall to the inflation target over the course of the year.""The interest rate path is now around 25 basis points higher than before over the entire forecast horizon. Similar to other central banks, Norges Bank sees major uncertainty in the trade conflict and the possibility of rising tariffs. The exact impact on prices and growth can only be estimated, not predicted. Imported inflation is likely to rise, but weaker global demand and a stronger krone could dampen price pressure.""I think that Norges Bank will not lower rates until June at the earliest, when it presents its new monetary policy report. Until then, it will have three more months of inflation data (March to May) and more information about the trade conflict and its economic impact. The krone should remain stable in the coming months and be able to defend its gains, with a slight upward trend."

12:49 EUR/USD flattens as investors await Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy
EUR/USD wobbles around 1.0800 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

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The major currency pair struggles for direction as investors refrain from building fresh positions before the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump at 20:00 GMT. US President Trump's fresh suite of tariffs is expected to become effective immediately after the announcement. Such a scenario will upend the global trading system, making products of countries that will attract higher tariffs less competitive. Higher import duties will also result in a slowdown in global business investment as firms would struggle to ascertain the demand outlook of their products. The comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday also indicated that the President will impose the highest level of levies on his trading partners and stated that targeted countries could pass them by meeting US demands, specifically by diminishing rates on imports from the US. Investors expect Trump's tariffs will also be unfavorable to the US economy, considering consumer and business confidence deterioration. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also showed on Tuesday that the business activity contracted in March after expanding for two straight months. "Demand and production retreated, and destaffing continued, as panellists’ companies responded to demand confusion," ISM Manufacturing Chair Timothy Fiore said. Going forward, investors will also focus on the ADP Employment Change data for March, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. US private employers are expected to have added 105K fresh workers, higher than the 77K addition recorded in February. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains on edge ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement EUR/USD stays on its toes as investors expect the European Union (EU) to be one of the leading trading partners of the US that will attract the highest tariffs. Donald Trump has alleged the EU several times for unfair trade practices with the US. Trump has blamed the Eurozone for not buying enough American goods. Trump's sweeping hefty tariffs on the Eurozone will significantly impact the region’s economic outlook. Last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the trade war could subtract 0.5% from the bloc’s economic growth. Lower economic growth and easing inflationary pressures in the Eurozone would boost expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in the policy meeting this month. On Tuesday, the Eurostat reported that the core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) – which excludes volatile items such as food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – rose at a slower pace of 2.4% in 12 months to March, compared to estimates of 2.5% and the prior release of 2.6%. The outlook of the Eurozone could be worsened if the EU Commission shoots retaliatory measures against Trump’s tariff. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned on Tuesday, “We do not necessarily want to retaliate, but if it is necessary, we have a strong plan to do so, and we will use it.” Von der Leyen added that all instruments for countermeasures are “on the table” and that we have the power to “push back against US tariffs”. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD trades sideways around 1.0800 EUR/USD oscillates inside Tuesday’s range, trading around 1.0800 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to provide support to the pair around 1.0778. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down below 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum is over, but the upside bias is intact. Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:43 Germany 10-y Bond Auction fell from previous 2.92% to 2.68%
Germany 10-y Bond Auction fell from previous 2.92% to 2.68%

12:42 AUD/USD: Increase in momentum indicates AUD can continue to decline – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a 0.6250/0.6300 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, increase in momentum indicates AUD could continue to decline, but it is too early to determine if it can reach 0.6185, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a 0.6250/0.6300 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, increase in momentum indicates AUD could continue to decline, but it is too early to determine if it can reach 0.6185, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Unlikely to reach 0.618524-HOUR VIEW: "On Monday, AUD fell to a low of 0.6219. Yesterday, Tuesday, we highlighted that AUD 'could retest the 0.6220 level, but given the oversold conditions, any further decline is not expected to reach the major support at 0.6185.' However, AUD dipped less than expected to 0.6232 before rebounding sharply to close at 0.6279. The rapid rebound appears to be running ahead of itself, and AUD is unlikely to rise much further. Today, AUD is more likely to trade in a 0.6250/0.6300 range."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (01 Apr, spot at 0.6245), we highlighted, after the sharp drop on Monday, the increase in momentum indicates that AUD 'could continue to decline.' However, we pointed out, 'it is too early to determine if it can reach 0.6185.' We added, 'to sustain the buildup in momentum, AUD must remain below 0.6300.' We did not quite expect the subsequent strong rebound. From here, a clear break above 0.6300 would indicate that AUD is likely to trade in a range instead of declining."

12:38 GBP: Testing the relative safe-haven status – ING
The UK’s goods exports to the US are worth just below 2% of GDP compared to 3% for the eurozone. It is no massive difference, but the EU has been much more in the focus of Trump’s confrontational foreign approach, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

The UK’s goods exports to the US are worth just below 2% of GDP compared to 3% for the eurozone. It is no massive difference, but the EU has been much more in the focus of Trump’s confrontational foreign approach, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.Downside risks for EUR/GBP in the near term"In particular, Trump explicitly opened to a trade deal with the UK in previous months, putting British exports at the front of potential exemptions should negotiations follow today’s announcement. The more markets will see room for the initial tariff announcement being watered down via negotiations, the more sterling can outperform the euro.""We mostly see downside risks for EUR/GBP in the near term, with a move below 0.830 very much possible. In the longer run, there will be room for a rebound as the Bank of England rate expectations can be repriced lower."

12:36 USD/JPY: Bias to sell rallies – OCBC
USD/JPY remains caught in a 2-way trade between safe haven demand and JPY being directly hit by reciprocal tariffs. Pair was last at 149.60, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY remains caught in a 2-way trade between safe haven demand and JPY being directly hit by reciprocal tariffs. Pair was last at 149.60, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. JPY is likely to strengthen in risk-off trades"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but decline in RSI moderated. 2-way trades likely. Retain bias to sell rallies. Death cross formed (50 cuts 200 DMA to the downside). Support at 149.10/20 levels (21 DMA, 50% fibo), 148.70 and 147 levels (61.8% fibo). Resistance at 151.20/50 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep low to Jan high, 50, 200 DMAs), 153 (100 DMA)." "Japan was one of the countries that was singled out by Trump for taking advantage of the US. For instance, Japan imposes over 20% tariff rate on several agricultural products including beef and cheese, around 30% on leather shoes and about 10% on clothing and commercial trucks." "There have been chatters of production adjustments or supply chain shifts in attempt to avoid being hit by reciprocal tariff adjustment, but it remains uncertain if this would be useful. Hence 2-way trades for USD/JPY is still likely in the interim unless Japan is exempted from reciprocal tariffs. In this scenario, JPY is likely to strengthen in risk-off trades."

12:31 USD: Tariff announcement at 10PM CET – ING
The market reaction to today’s 'liberation day' will depend on the size of tariffs, geographical/sectorial distribution, and openness to negotiation. The announcement is due at 4PM ET/10PM CET, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

The market reaction to today’s 'liberation day' will depend on the size of tariffs, geographical/sectorial distribution, and openness to negotiation. The announcement is due at 4PM ET/10PM CET, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.Trump seems to be planning a 20% tariff on most US imports"Media reports have suggested that Trump is planning a 20% tariff on most US imports, roughly equating to $660bn in expected revenues when taking the 3.3tr as a reference value for US imports. But it’s also been reported that a tiered system with different rates or a customised approach is being considered. Expectations are also that some sensitive sectors can be excluded to minimise the impact on US producers and consumers.""The second layer of FX impact will depend on the geographical distribution of tariffs. Markets may be taking the 20% flat rate as a baseline, which can generate a stronger dollar reaction across the board, but the details of country-specific and product-specific duties should determine how single currencies will behave in the crosses. We still think European currencies are facing greater downside risks in this sense.""We have seen some sharp outperformance of AUD, NZD, NOK and CAD overnight as a flat tariff as opposed to case-specific reciprocal tariffs is seen as slightly more lenient and crucially less unpredictable. Our view remains that downside risks dominate for all currencies against the dollar today. The US may try to announce the harsher measures today before eventually scaling it back, which may still force a positioning rotation into USD and JPY with high beta currencies taking the bigger hit."

12:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:29 ECB’s Rehn: Trade protectionism is a key risk to economic outlook
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Wednesday, “trade protectionism is a key risk to economic outlook.”

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Wednesday, “trade protectionism is a key risk to economic outlook.”Additional quotes"The ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.""Disinflation is on track and growth outlook has weakened."

12:26 Lagarde speech: Tariffs aren't good for the global economy
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned on Wednesday, “tariffs aren't good for the global economy.”

12:22 DXY: 2-way trades into event risk – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) held steady as markets await reciprocal tariff announcement on 2 Apr (4pm ET/4am SGT Thurs morning). There are reports to suggest that Trump’s team is still in the midst of finalising tariffs, with options ranging from reciprocal to tiered to universal tariffs.

US Dollar (USD) held steady as markets await reciprocal tariff announcement on 2 Apr (4pm ET/4am SGT Thurs morning). There are reports to suggest that Trump’s team is still in the midst of finalising tariffs, with options ranging from reciprocal to tiered to universal tariffs. DXY was last at 104.16 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Nations including China and Europe seem more prepared"Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI fell. Not ruling out the risk of a pullback. Support at 103.10, 102.50 levels (76.4% fibo). Resistance at 104.00/10 levels (21 DMA, 61.8% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high), 104.60 and 105 levels (50% fibo, 200 DMA). This week, watch ADP (Wed); ISM services (Thu); payrolls (Fri). Softer data should weigh on USD. From a markets point of view, Trump’s tariff threat has been very well flagged in advance. Rates markets have reacted, pivoting to growth concerns from inflation while US equities (S&P 500, NASDAQ) have fallen over 10% at one point." "In FX world, AxJ FX have also largely traded on the back foot in the second half of March. It is also interesting to note that the North Asian neighbours (except Taiwan) - Japan, China and South Korea have banded together and agreed to make a joint response to US tariffs. Trump’s tariff and security threat (over aid to Ukraine) have also led to a rare unity among European countries to put together a 'ReArm Europe' plan. EU members are also considering deploying its anti-coercion instrument, which could lead to restrictions on trade and services, intellectual property rights, foreign direct investment, and access to public procurement". "This time, nations including China and Europe seem more prepared, whether it is deploying retaliatory strategies, counter-negotiation tactics or coming together. It may be premature to draw definitive conclusions about the future dynamics of trade friction and negotiations, but we cannot dismiss the possibility that the USD could weaken if the trade war between the US and the ROW results in US being worse off."

12:21 Gold price stabilizes ahead of Trump's tariffs announcement on “Liberation Day”
Gold price (XAU/USD) stabilizes just above $3,130 at the time of writing on Wednesday following a mean reversal move the prior day after a fresh all-time high got eked out at $3,149 before closing in negative territory.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) stabilizes just above $3,130 at the time of writing on Wednesday following a mean reversal move the prior day after a fresh all-time high got eked out at $3,149 before closing in negative territory. The Gold rush rally stalled ahead of United States (US) President Donald Trump officially announcing the reciprocal tariff implementation later this Wednesday at the White House with his entire cabinet present. However, with uncertainty building up towards this day, the announcement itself could be less impactful than initially thought, resulting in a sharp correction for Gold this week as a "buy the rumour, sell the news" event. Meanwhile, traders are gearing up for the always-important private sector employment data provided by Automatic Data Processing (ADP). Although there is no proven correlation with the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release on Friday, traders still see it as a litmus test. Expectations are for a surge of 105,000 new employment in private jobs in March, compared to 77,000 in February. This could make sense as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been trying to push public sector employees towards private jobs. Daily digest market movers: The event just around the cornerThe White House has been reluctant to provide details of the targets and scale of the levies, which will be applied right after they are rolled out at the 20:00 GMT event in Washington this Wednesday. The pending announcement has driven a new wave of volatility, including a US stock selloff. While uncertain times are generally good for Gold, investors are keen to see the impact of the next set of levies on trade, the global economy and geopolitics, Bloomberg reports. The CME FedWatch tool sees chances for a rate cut in May standing at 15.8%. A rate cut in June is still the most plausible outcome, with only a 25.6% chance for rates to remain at current levels. Huaan Yifu Gold ETF, the largest such investment vehicle in China, received record inflows of 1.4 billion Yuan ($194 million) on Monday. Followed by another 1 billion Yuan, the second-highest, on the following day. The frantic pace of buying means Gold ETFs now have the biggest assets under management among all commodity-related peers in China, Reuters reports. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Black box to be revealedAgain, this is a “parental advisory” just ahead of the main event for this Wednesday. With the primary tailwind for the Goldrush set to be officially announced, the “buy the rumour, sell the fact” rule of thumb should be considered. The risk could be that once the reciprocal tariffs take effect on Wednesday, only easing due to profit-taking in Gold could occur once separate trade agreements and partial unwinds take place. On the upside, the daily R1 resistance at $3,141 is the first level to consider, followed by the $3,149 all-time high. Further up, the R2 resistance at $3,169 could still be targeted later in the day. Beyond that, the broader upside target stands at $3,200. On the downside, the S1 support at $3,093 is quite far, though it could still be tested without completely erasing this week’s gains. Further down, the S2 support at $3,073 should ensure that Gold does not fall back below $3,000. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:11 GBP/USD: Expected to trade in a sideways range of 1.2885/1.2945 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 1.2885/1.2945 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.2850 and 1.3050, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 1.2885/1.2945 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.2850 and 1.3050, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "We pointed out yesterday that GBP 'is under mild downward pressure.' We expected GBP to edge lower, but we were of the view that 'any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.2880.' Our view turned out to be correct, as GBP dropped to a low of 1.2880 and then rebounded to end the day little changed at 1.2923 (+0.04%). The mild downward pressure appears to have faded. Today, we expect GBP to trade in a sideways range of 1.2885/1.2945."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from last Friday (28 Mar, spot at 1.2950), wherein 'the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.2850 and 1.3050.' There is no change in our view."

12:01 Liberation Day – but at what price? – Commerzbank
The uncertainty that Trump's policy brings with it, through his many U-turns, his erratic statements and his cancellation of long-standing agreements and treaties.

The uncertainty that Trump's policy brings with it, through his many U-turns, his erratic statements and his cancellation of long-standing agreements and treaties. It seems that nothing can be relied upon anymore. The fact that this uncertainty is dampening business sentiment and thus growth prospects seems to be sufficiently present in the market and in the minds of market participants, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. Consumers may put pressure in the US growth "There's the question for me as to whether the market and the US administration are already taking sufficient account of the fact that the current uncertainty caused by US trade policy could also have a massive impact on consumer behavior. If consumers stop spending because of fear of unemployment and rising prices, shy away from major purchases or even tighten their belts and go without, the great pillar of US growth will falter. "If consumers become less active in the housing market due to high or even rising interest rates, or even experience payment difficulties, the pillar will crumble even more. If, on top of that, the stock market were to fall, drying up another source of income, even the last consumer would be affected. And once confidence in the future has been lost, it usually takes a long time for it to return – and with it, growth and the US's growth advantage. That would be a high price to pay." "Trump and his supporters may call a possible economic downturn transitory. I am not so sure that a downturn during a raging trade war would be anything but transitory and that the US president's motivating slogans would be enough to keep US consumers in line – especially once they have lost their jobs and the prospects of finding a new one look bleak."

12:00 AUD/USD climbs to fresh weekly top, retakes 0.6300 ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs
The AUD/USD pair attracts some follow-through buyers for the second consecutive day and recovers further from a nearly four-week low, around the 0.6220-0.6215 area touched on Monday.

11:49 EUR/USD: Current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase – UOB Group
Slight increase in downward momentum is likely to lead to a lower range of 1.0770/1.0820 instead of a sustained decline.

Slight increase in downward momentum is likely to lead to a lower range of 1.0770/1.0820 instead of a sustained decline. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase; EUR is expected to trade in a 1.0730/1.0845 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR is expected to trade in a 1.0730/1.0845 range for now 24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected EUR to 'trade in a sideways range between 1.0780 and 1.0840.' EUR subsequently traded in a 1.0776/1.0829 range, closing lower by 0.22% at 1.0793. Although there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, this is likely to lead to a lower range of 1.0770/1.0820 instead of a sustained decline." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (01 Apr, spot at 1.0815). As indicated, the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, and EUR is expected to trade in a 1.0730/1.0895 range for now."

11:30 EUR: Room to price in more tariff risk – ING
EUR/USD has softened a bit into today’s tariff event, but price action suggests strong buying interest below 1.080, in another sign that markets aren’t ready to sink their teeth on a negative, tariff-led euro narrative, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/USD has softened a bit into today’s tariff event, but price action suggests strong buying interest below 1.080, in another sign that markets aren’t ready to sink their teeth on a negative, tariff-led euro narrative, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes. Carpet tariff may suggest a EUR/USD decline "The case we have been making is that the euro should embed more tariff downside risks. Our models suggest that at 1.080 there is no risk premium on EUR/USD. Should a 20% carpet tariff materialise, the argument for a EUR/USD decline will become more compelling, but perhaps we need to see even tougher targeting of EU products or countries to dent the euro’s relatively safe status against other high beta currencies." "Outside of today’s reaction, which may well be EUR negative, things will be more nuanced. The ECB may surprise on the hawkish side with a hold in two weeks' time, and the continuous rotation from US to European assets could also continue to fuel EUR demand. We still like a decline in EUR/USD and have 1.070 as a target, but we doubt that would be a straight line even if the US surprises with a more aggressive tariff announcement."

11:13 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:11 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session.

11:00 Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation up to 0.62% in March from previous 0.51%
Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation up to 0.62% in March from previous 0.51%

10:58 Pound Sterling consolidates against US Dollar ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades sideways around 1.2900 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session.

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The GBP/USD pair consolidates as investors have been sidelined, waiting for the release of a detailed reciprocal tariff plan by United States (US) President Donald Trump later in the day. US President Trump has been touting April 2 as “Liberation Day” for weeks as he believes that the imposition of reciprocal tariffs will make “America great again”. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are expected to upend the global trade system soon, as White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt signaled on Tuesday that fresh levies will become effective immediately after the announcement. Market sentiment is expected to become excessively risk-averse if the degree of import duties comes in higher than expected. A note from the Washington Post on Tuesday showed that the White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose 20% tariffs on most imports to the US. Also, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that the President will sweep the highest possible levies on his major trading allies. Bessent suggested that tariffs on targeted countries could be diminished if they ease trade and non-trade barriers for imports from the US. Donald Trump is expected to distribute the tariff collection to households through tax dividends or refunds. Such a scenario will be inflationary for the US economy, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance in the near term. In Wednesday’s session, investors will also focus on the ADP Employment Change data for March, which will be released at 12:15 GMT. The agency is expected to show that private employers added 105K fresh workers, higher than the 77K addition recorded in February. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades with caution on Trump tariff jitters The Pound Sterling trades cautiously against its major peers on Wednesday. The British currency struggles as investors turn risk-averse ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement. Market participants expect that Trump's new suite of levies will weigh on global economic growth, assuming that the imposition of higher duties by the US on its trading partners will make their products less competitive in the global market. The United Kingdom (UK) economy will also bear the burden of uncertainty in the global market. The UK Office for Business Responsibility (OBR) warned on Monday that Trump’s policies could wipe out the government fiscal buffer and cut the economy’s size by as much as 1%. Additionally, a delay in negotiations between the US and the UK over finalizing an economic deal beyond the “Liberation Day” has also stemmed concerns over the outlook of trade relations between them. There is a high chance that the terms and conditions of the potential economic deal could change after the reciprocal tariff announcement. Meanwhile, cooling wage growth pressures are expected to uplift Bank of England (BoE) dovish bets. The Incomes Data Research (IDR) reported on Wednesday that the median pay rise grew by 3.5% in the three months to February, slower than the prior release of 4%. This was the lowest level seen in three years. It seems that employers refrain from awarding fat hikes to compensate for the increase in contributions to social security schemes. In the Autumn Statement, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves raised employers’ contribution to National Insurance (NI) from 13.8% to 15%. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling ranges against US Dollar around 1.2900 The Pound Sterling trades inside Tuesday’s trading range against the US Dollar on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair continues to wobble around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, plotted from late-September high to mid-January low, near 1.2930. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) provides support to the pair around 1.2890. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down to near 60.00 after turning overbought above 70.00. Should a fresh bullish momentum come into action if the RSI resumes the upside journey after holding above the 60.00 level Looking down, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2770 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2615 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the October 15 high of 1.3100 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:30 ADP Employment Change projected to show US job growth gaining in March
The US labor market is poised to steal the spotlight this week as concerns over a potential slowdown in economic momentum remain on the rise — an unease fueled by recent signs of slower growth and troubling underlying data, aggravated by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}It will be another key week for the US labour market with the ADP and NFP releases.The US private sector is expected to add 105K new jobs in March. The US Dollar Index appears to have embarked on a consolidative phase.The US labor market is poised to steal the spotlight this week as concerns over a potential slowdown in economic momentum remain on the rise — an unease fueled by recent signs of slower growth and troubling underlying data, aggravated by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs.All eyes will be on the ADP Research Institute, which is set to unveil its March Employment Change report on Wednesday, offering a glimpse into private sector job gains.Traditionally released a couple of days ahead of the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the ADP survey is often regarded as a sneak peek into the trends that might appear in the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report, even though the two don’t always tell the same story.
Under pressure: Employment, inflation, and Fed strategyEmployment is a cornerstone of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dual mandate, alongside maintaining price stability.With inflationary pressures proving stubborn, attention has temporarily shifted to the US labour market following the Fed’s hawkish hold at its March 18–19 meeting. Meanwhile, investors are keeping a close eye on the White House’s trade policies — especially on developments from US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day”. Concerns that these tariffs could spark renewed inflation have contributed to the Fed’s cautious approach and the guarded tone of its policymakers.Recent weaker-than-expected results from key fundamentals, which challenge the notion of US “exceptionalism,” have led market participants to predict 50 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed this year.Against a backdrop of tariff tensions, a slowing economy, and persistent consumer price pressures, the upcoming ADP report — and particularly Friday’s NFP report — has taken on renewed significance, potentially guiding the Fed’s next move.When will the ADP report be released, and how could it affect the US Dollar Index?The ADP Employment Change report for March is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT, with forecasts predicting an addition of 105K new jobs after February’s lacklustre gain of 77K. In anticipation of the report, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding a defensive stance amid intense trade concerns and jitters over the health of the US economy.Should the ADP figures exceed expectations, they could help ease current concerns about an economic slowdown. Conversely, if the numbers fall short, it might intensify worries that the economy is losing steam — potentially prompting the Fed to reconsider an earlier restart of its easing cycle.Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, explains that if the recovery picks up momentum, the DXY should initially retest its weekly peak of 104.68 from March 26, which precedes its critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Once this area is cleared, the index is expected to face its next provisional hurdle at its 100-day SMA in the 106.70 region, prior to the weekly top of 107.66 reached on February 28, all ahead of the February high of 109.88 hit on February 3. “On the flip side, if sellers gain control, the index might initially find support at the yearly floor of 103.25 from March 19, ahead of the 2024 bottom of 100.15 from September 27”, Piovano adds.“Accentuating the current bearish stance, the index continues to trade below its 200-day SMA and the Ichimoku cloud. Maintaining levels below these thresholds should leave the door open to extra weakness for the time being”, Piovano concludes.
Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 02, 2025 12:15 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 105K Previous: 77K Source: ADP Research Institute Why it matters to traders? Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

10:17 Forex Today: It's all about Trump's tariff announcements on "Liberation Day"
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 2:

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The US economic calendar will feature March ADP Employment Change and February Factory Orders data. Market participants will also pay close attention to comments from central bankers. US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% 0.31% -0.13% 0.21% 0.16% 0.15% 0.21% EUR -0.07% 0.24% -0.21% 0.14% 0.11% 0.08% 0.14% GBP -0.31% -0.24% -0.43% -0.09% -0.13% -0.16% -0.07% JPY 0.13% 0.21% 0.43% 0.35% 0.28% 0.27% 0.36% CAD -0.21% -0.14% 0.09% -0.35% -0.01% -0.07% 0.03% AUD -0.16% -0.11% 0.13% -0.28% 0.01% -0.02% 0.06% NZD -0.15% -0.08% 0.16% -0.27% 0.07% 0.02% 0.08% CHF -0.21% -0.14% 0.07% -0.36% -0.03% -0.06% -0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Tuesday that the amounts announced on Wednesday are the highest the tariffs will go. However, countries could then take steps to bring the tariffs down. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that policy writers at the Office of the US Trade Representative are putting together a third tariff option to present to Trump, with an aim to smooth tariff goals into a simple, more streamlined offering that would see flat rates across the board.The US Dollar (USD) struggled to gather strength on Tuesday following the disappointing JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI data. The USD Index fluctuates in a tight channel above 104.00 in the European morning on Wednesday, while US stock index futures trade marginally lower on the day.EUR/USD moves sideways in a narrow band below 1.0800 after posting small losses on Tuesday. Several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers will be delivering speeches later in the day.GBP/USD failed to make a decisive move in either direction and the day flat on Tuesday. The pair extends its sideways grind slightly above 1.2900 to begin the European session on Wednesday.After reaching a new record-high near $3,150, Gold corrected lower and closed in negative territory on Tuesday. XAU/USD holds steady and trades at around $3,110 early Wednesday.USD/JPY closed modestly lower on Tuesday but managed to find support near 149.00. The pair edges higher and trades above 149.50 in the European morning. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

10:05 USD/CHF drifts higher to near 0.8850 amid looming Trump tariff
The USD/CHF pair strengthens to around 0.8845 during the early European session on Wednesday.

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Trump said that he will impose reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, suggesting that many countries with their own duties on US goods could suddenly face new trade barriers. The White House stated that Trump’s forthcoming tariffs will take effect right after they are unveiled on Wednesday.

Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) by the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.0 in March from 50.3 in February. This figure came in below the market consensus of 49.5. The weaker US economic data could undermine the Greenback.

On the Swiss front, risks of a global trade war, uncertainties, and ongoing geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF). Trump threatened Iran over the weekend with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

10:01 Spain Unemployment Change came in at -13.311K below forecasts (-2.5K) in March
Spain Unemployment Change came in at -13.311K below forecasts (-2.5K) in March

10:00 Spain Unemployment Change came in at -13.3K below forecasts (-2.5K) in March
Spain Unemployment Change came in at -13.3K below forecasts (-2.5K) in March

09:48 EUR/INR today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

09:45 France Budget Balance registered at €-40.3B, below expectations (€-30.2B) in February
France Budget Balance registered at €-40.3B, below expectations (€-30.2B) in February

09:10 EUR/USD holds positive ground near 1.0800 as traders brace for Trump’s tariff announcement
The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.0790 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday.

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Trump will impose tariffs on US trade partners on Wednesday, adding to already announced duties, triggering confusion and uncertainty. The White House stated that Trump’s forthcoming tariffs will take effect right after they unveil the policies. The concerns over Trump's tariff plans widening the global trade war and triggering an economic slowdown in the United States could weigh on the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the major pair.

Looking ahead, Trump will announce his tariff policies on Wednesday during an event in the White House Rose Garden, his top spokeswoman said. Traders will also keep an eye on the US ADP Employment Change for March, which will be released later on the same day. If the report shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the USD against the Euro (EUR).

Across the pond, Eurozone inflation eased as expected last month, adding to already widespread anticipation for another European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut later in April. The preliminary reading of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the Eurozone rose 2.2% YoY in March, compared to 2.3% in February. This reading came in line with the market expectations. The cooler inflation in the Eurozone in March might weigh on the shared currency ahead of the US President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:06 India Gold price today: Gold stays hopeful ahead of Trump's tariff reveal
Having touched a new record high in India on Tuesday, Gold price has entered a phase of upside consolidation early Wednesday.

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The traditional safe haven, the Gold price, benefited from tariff concerns ahead of US President Donald Trump's announcement on April 2. As of writing, Gold price is ticking slightly higher to Indian Rupees (INR) 8,583.84 per gram after settling Tuesday at INR 8,572.42, according to data compiled by FXStreet. Meanwhile, Gold price advanced to INR 100,120.70 per tola from Tuesday's close of INR 99,986.97 per tola. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,583.84 10 Grams 85,837.71 Tola 100,120.70 Troy Ounce 266,994.30 Global Market Movers: Gold bulls opt to wait for Trump's tariffs before placing fresh bets Investors remain worried about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade policies, which assists the safe-haven Gold price to regain positive traction following the overnight pullback from a fresh all-time peak. The recent US macro data pointed to still sticky inflation and slowing economic growth, implying that the economy could be heading towards stagflation, which might force the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle in June. The concerns were fueled by the disappointing US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Tuesday, which fell from 50.3 to 49 in March and indicated that business activity contracted for the first time in three months. The report also revealed that inflation at the factory gate jumped to the highest level in nearly three years and the Employment Index highlighted a decrease in the sector's payrolls at an accelerating pace during the reported month. Adding to this, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that the number of job openings on the last business day of February stood at 7.56 million, down from 7.76 million reported in the previous month. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the markets are currently pricing in the possibility that the Fed would cut rates by 80 basis points this year, undermining the US Dollar and further benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal. Asian equity markets tracked the overnight gains on Wall Street, which, along with overbought conditions, might hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing fresh bets ahead of Trump's impending reciprocal tariffs announcement. In the meantime, the release of the US ADP report on private-sector employment and Factory Orders data might influence the USD, which could provide some impetus to the precious metal later during the early North American session. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

08:52 FX option expiries for Apr 2 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 2 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Apr 2 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.0800 1.6b1.0920 1.5bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 152.75 700mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6250 420mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4210 555m1.4400 700m

08:45 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.4300, 100-day SMA pivotal support ahead of Trump’s tariffs
The USD/CAD pair reverses an Asian session dip to sub-1.4300 levels or a fresh weekly low touched during the Asian session on Wednesday, and for now, seems to have stalled the overnight pullback from the 1.4415 area, or a nearly three-week high.

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The USD/CAD pair reverses an Asian session dip to sub-1.4300 levels or a fresh weekly low touched during the Asian session on Wednesday, and for now, seems to have stalled the overnight pullback from the 1.4415 area, or a nearly three-week high. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through buying as traders opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of US President Donald Trump's tariffs announcement later today. In the meantime, worries about the potential economic fallout from US tariffs, amid reports that the Trump administration is considering imposing global tariffs of up to 20% on almost all US trading partners, undermine the Canadian Dollar (CAD). That said, the recent move up in Crude Oil prices offers some support to the commodity-linked Loonie. Furthermore, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon keep the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and cap the upside for the USD/CAD pair. From a technical perspective, spot prices showed some resilience and bounced off the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. This, along with neutral oscillators on the daily chart, makes it prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the 1.4300 mark before placing bearish bets around the USD/CAD pair. The subsequent slide has the potential to drag spot prices towards last week's swing low, around the 1.4235 region, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The USD/CAD pair might then turn vulnerable to prolong its downtrend below the 1.4200 mark, towards testing the year-to-date low, around the 1.4150 region touched on February 14. On the flip side, any further move up is likely to confront some resistance near the 1.4350 area, above which a bout of a short-covering move should allow spot prices to reclaim the 1.4400 round figure. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for additional gains and lift the USD/CAD pair towards the 1.4440 intermediate hurdle en route to the 1.4480 region, the 1.4500 psychological mark, and the monthly swing high, around the 1.4545 region. USD/CAD daily chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

08:01 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 58.1, above forecasts (57.6) in March
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 58.1, above forecasts (57.6) in March

07:54 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps above $33.50 amid looming Trump tariff
The Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers to around $33.85 during the early European session on Wednesday.

07:52 GBP/USD flat lines above 1.2900 mark as traders await Trump’s tariffs announcement
The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of the 1.2870 support zone, or a multi-week low touched last Thursday, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Wednesday.

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Fed rate cut bets keep the USD bulls on the defensive, which acts as a tailwind for the major.Expectations for less aggressive BoE rate cuts further lend support ahead of Trump’s tariffs.The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of the 1.2870 support zone, or a multi-week low touched last Thursday, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2915-1.2920 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders keenly await US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcement before placing fresh directional bets. In the meantime, investors opt to wait on the sidelines amid the risk of a widening global trade war, especially after Trump dashed hopes that the levies would be limited to a smaller group of countries with the biggest trade imbalances. The UK expects to be hit by new US tariffs, indicating that a deal to exempt British goods will not be reached in time. This, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the British Pound (GBP) and the GBP/USD pair. The downside, however, seems cushioned amid subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, led by expectations that a tariff-driven slowdown in the US economic activity would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. In fact, the markets are pricing in a greater chance of a rate cut in June and the bets were lifted by US ISM PMI on Tuesday, which indicated that the manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in three months. Apart from this, a stable performance around the equity markets is seen undermining the safe-haven Greenback, The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, could draw support from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will lower borrowing costs more slowly than other central banks, including the Fed. This might further contribute to limiting the downside for the GBP/USD pair and warrants caution for aggressive bearish traders. Moving ahead, there isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the UK. The US economic docket, however, features the ADP report on private-sector employment and Factory Orders data. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, could influence the USD and provide some impetus to the GBP/USD pair later during the North American session. The focus, however, remains glued to Trump’s tariffs announcement. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

07:28 Gold price remains close to record high amid concerns over Trump’s reciprocal tariffs
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday and stalls the previous day's modest retracement slide from a fresh record high.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price regains positive traction amid concerns about Trump’s aggressive trade policies.Fed rate cut bets keep the USD bulls on the defensive and further benefiting the XAU/USD pair.A broadly stable risk sentiment might cap gains ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday and stalls the previous day's modest retracement slide from a fresh record high. Investors continue to take refuge in traditional safe-haven assets amid the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs and their impact on the global economy. Moreover, geopolitical tensions act as a tailwind for the bullion. Adding to this, US recession fears and the prospects for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) drive flows toward the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has been struggling to gain any meaningful traction amid the growing acceptance that a tariff-driven US economic slowdown would force the Fed to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This is seen as another factor lending additional support to the Gold price, though a stable performance around the Asian equity markets and overbought conditions on the daily chart might hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing fresh bets. Investors might also opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the keenly awaited Trump administration's tariffs announcement later today. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls retain control as trade-related anxiety continues to drive safe-haven flows Investors remain worried about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade policies, which assists the safe-haven Gold price to regain positive traction following the overnight pullback from a fresh all-time peak. The recent US macro data pointed to still sticky inflation and slowing economic growth, implying that the economy could be heading towards stagflation, which might force the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle in June. The concerns were fueled by the disappointing US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Tuesday, which fell from 50.3 to 49 in March and indicated that business activity contracted for the first time in three months. The report also revealed that inflation at the factory gate jumped to the highest level in nearly three years and the Employment Index highlighted a decrease in the sector's payrolls at an accelerating pace during the reported month. Adding to this, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that the number of job openings on the last business day of February stood at 7.56 million, down from 7.76 million reported in the previous month. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the markets are currently pricing in the possibility that the Fed would cut rates by 80 basis points this year, undermining the US Dollar and further benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal. Asian equity markets tracked the overnight gains on Wall Street, which, along with overbought conditions, might hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing fresh bets ahead of Trump's impending reciprocal tariffs announcement. In the meantime, the release of the US ADP report on private-sector employment and Factory Orders data might influence the USD, which could provide some impetus to the precious metal later during the early North American session. Gold price constructive setup backs prospect for additional gains; overbought daily RSI warrants caution From a technical perspective, the overnight pullback from the all-time peak stalled near the $3,100 mark and the subsequent move up favors bullish traders. That said, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands well above the 70 mark and points to overbought conditions, making it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further gains. Nevertheless, the constructive setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. In the meantime, the $3,100 round figure might continue to protect the immediate downside and act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below, however, might prompt some long-unwinding and drag the Gold price below the $3,076 area, or the weekly swing low touched on Monday, towards the $3,057-3,058 resistance breakpoint. The downward trajectory could extend further toward the $3,036-3,035 support zone en route to the $3,000 psychological mark, which should act as a strong base for the XAU/USD. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

05:53 NZD/USD advances to fresh weekly top, around 0.5720-0.5725 region
The NZD/USD pair gains strong follow-through positive traction for the second straight day and climbs to a fresh weekly high, around the 0.5720-0.5725 region during the Asian session on Wednesday.

05:44 USD/INR strengthens as Trump’s “Liberation Day” looms
The Indian Rupee (INR) softens on Wednesday. The local currency retreats after logging its best monthly rise in over six years, driven by a weaker Greenback and renewed foreign inflows into equities.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee edges lower in Wednesday’s Asian session. Trump is set to implement tariffs on US trading partners on Wednesday. The US March ADP Employment Change is due later on Wednesday.The Indian Rupee (INR) softens on Wednesday. The local currency retreats after logging its best monthly rise in over six years, driven by a weaker Greenback and renewed foreign inflows into equities. Analysts expect the INR's near-term outlook to depend on US President Donald Trump's anticipated reciprocal tariff on major trading partners, set on Wednesday. Traders will assess how the levies may impact global trade and growth prospects.

Looking ahead, traders brace for US President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs later on Wednesday. Also, the US March ADP Employment Change will be published. Remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will also be in focus throughout the week.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its interest rate decision next week. A Reuters poll of economists anticipates just one more rate cut in August, which would mark its shortest easing cycle on record. This, in turn, might exert further mild downward pressure on the Indian currency. Indian Rupee seems vulnerable ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement “The rupee has benefited from a recent weakness in the dollar and the Reserve Bank of India allowing for a two-way movement, but key risks to India's external sector balance continue to stem from the uncertainties on U.S. trade/tariff policies," Kotak Institutional Equities said in a note. Trump said that he will impose “reciprocal tariffs” on Wednesday, suggesting that many countries with their own duties on US goods could suddenly face new trade barriers. The White House stated that Trump’s forthcoming tariffs will take effect right after they are unveiled on Wednesday. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Tuesday that the amounts announced on Wednesday are the highest the tariffs will go. However, countries could then take steps to bring the tariffs down. The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.0 in March from 50.3 in February. This figure came in below the market consensus of 49.5. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said late Tuesday that US hard data are strong, but soft data almost cratering. Goolsbee further stated that uncertainty is tainted with fear regarding inflation. USD/INR’s bearish outlook remains intact below the 100-day EMA The Indian Rupee trades weaker on the day. According to the daily chart, the USD/INR pair keeps the bearish vibe, with the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The path of least resistance is to the downside as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 32.90.

The 85.00 psychological level acts as an initial support level for the pair. The additional downside filter to watch is 84.84, the low of December 19. The next bearish target is seen at 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024.

On the other hand, the key resistance level for USD/INR is located in the 85.90-86.00 zone, representing the 100-day EMA and round mark. Sustained upside momentum could pave the way to 86.48, the low of February 21, and then a rally to 87.00, the round figure. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:24 Japanese Yen trades with negative bias against USD ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains against its American counterpart and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen drifts lower amid concerns that Trump’s tariffs would affect Japan’s industries.The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations should limit deeper losses for the lower-yielding JPY. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement.The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains against its American counterpart and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair, however, remains confined in a range held since the beginning of this week as traders await a fresh catalyst before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Hence, the focus will remain glued to US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcement later today. In the meantime, speculations that a tariff-driven economic slowdown might force the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep the policy steady for the time being undermine the JPY. Investors, however, seem convinced that the BoJ will continue raising interest rates amid signs of broadening inflation in Japan. This marks a big divergence in comparison to the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and should support the lower-yielding JPY. Japanese Yen bulls remain on the sidelines amid market anxiety over Trump’s reciprocal tariffs Asian equity markets tracked the overnight gains on Wall Street ahead of the impending reciprocal tariffs announcement from US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, undermining the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, Trump dashed hopes that the levies would be limited to a smaller group of countries with the biggest trade imbalances and said on Sunday that so-called reciprocal tariffs would essentially include all nations. Furthermore, worries that the new levies would have a far-reaching impact on Japan's key industries forced investors to scale back their expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise policy rate at a faster pace. However, the incoming macro data, including strong consumer inflation figures from Tokyo released last Friday, keeps the door open for further interest rate hikes by the BoJ and helps limit deeper losses for the JPY. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, remains in an uncomfortable position on the back of rising prices and slowing business activity, which implies that the economy could be heading toward stagflation. The concerns were further fueled by data showing that the manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in three months and inflation at the factory gate jumped to the highest level in nearly three years. In fact, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49 from 50.3 in February. Moreover, the Employment Index highlights a decrease in the sector's payrolls at an accelerating pace. Adding to this, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed that the number of job openings on the last business day of February stood at 7.56 million, down from 7.76 million in January. The markets are currently pricing in the possibility that the Fed would lower borrowing costs by 80 basis points by the end of this year, which fails to assist the US Dollar in attracting any meaningful buyers. Meanwhile, the divergent BoJ-Fed expectations could further narrow the rate differential between Japan and the US. This, in turn, should limit losses for the lower-yielding JPY and cap the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look forward to Wednesday's US economic docket – featuring the ADP report on private-sector employment and Factory Orders – for some impetus ahead of Trump's tariffs announcement. USD/JPY needs to move beyond 150.25 area, or weekly high for bulls to seize near-term control From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has been showing resilience below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) since the beginning of this week. The subsequent move up could favor bullish traders, though neutral oscillators warrant some caution. Moreover, the recent breakdown below a multi-week-old ascending channel makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any meaningful gains. In the meantime, the weekly high, around the 150.25 area, could act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength above could lift the USD/JPY pair beyond the 150.75-150.80 hurdle, towards the 151.00 mark. This is followed by the March monthly swing high, around the 151.30 region and a technically significant 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the 151.60 zone, above which spot prices could reclaim the 152.00 mark and climb further to the 152.45-152.50 region en route to the 100-day SMA, around the 153.00 round figure. On the flip side, the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, currently around the 149.30-149.25 area, followed by the 149.00 mark and the 148.70 region, or the weekly swing low, could offer support to the USD/JPY pair. A convincing break below, however, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make spot prices vulnerable to resume a well-established downtrend witnessed over the past three months or so. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:18 Canada to avoid counter tariffs that risk jobs, price hikes – The Globe and Mail
Citing two federal trade advisers, The Globe and Mail reported early Wednesday that “Ottawa won’t impose levies on most US food and components that could hike the cost to families or cause mass layoffs or plant closings.”

04:35 BoJ's Ueda: US tariffs likely to push up US inflation
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that US tariffs are likely to push up US inflation in the near term but could weigh on US prices longer-term by slowing down US economic growth.

04:18 AUD/USD holds steady below 0.6300 as Trump prepares to unveil reciprocal tariffs
The AUD/USD pair trades on a flat note near 0.6275 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.

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Trump is set to implement tariffs on US trading partners on Wednesday, potentially adding more tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump has already placed a total of 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports since taking office in January, blaming Beijing for failing to do enough to curb the flow of chemicals used to make the deadly drug fentanyl into the US. The potential trade war between the US and China might exert some selling pressure on the Aussie, as China is a major trading partner to Australia.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 4.10% following the conclusion of its April policy meeting on Tuesday. The RBA’s monetary policy statement showed that the board is concerned and cautious about whether inflation will continue to moderate.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock said during the press conference that policymakers have to be careful not to get ahead of themselves on policy. Bullock added that the board did not discuss a rate cut and did not make up its mind on a May move.

Meanwhile, the encouraging Chinese economic data provides some support to the China-proxy Aussie. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.2 in March from 50.8 in February. This reading was better than the expectation of 51.1. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1793 vs. 7.1775 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1793 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1775 and 7.2663 Reuters estimate.

03:33 Australia Building Permits (YoY): 25.7% (February) vs 21.7%
Australia Building Permits (YoY): 25.7% (February) vs 21.7%

03:30 Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at -0.3%, above expectations (-1.4%) in February
Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at -0.3%, above expectations (-1.4%) in February

03:28 WTI remains capped below $71.00 as Trump’s tariffs loom
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.95 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

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Trump said on Sunday that he was "pissed off" at Russian President Vladimir Putin and would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Trump also threatened Iran over the weekend with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program. The rising geopolitical risks could disrupt global supply, which could lift the WTI price.

On the other hand, the WTI price would remain under pressure due to Trump’s auto and reciprocal tariffs. Trump said that he will impose “reciprocal tariffs” on Wednesday, suggesting that many countries with their own duties on US goods could suddenly face new trade barriers. The White House provided no details about the size and scope of tariffs that it confirmed Trump will impose later in the day.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending March 28 rose by 6.037 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 4.6 million barrels in the previous week. So far this year, crude oil inventories have climbed nearly 23 million barrels, according to Oil price calculations of API data.

Oil traders will monitor the OPEC+ ministerial committee meeting on Saturday to review policy. According to Reuters sources, OPEC+ plans to increase output by 135,000 barrels per day in May. OPEC+ agreed to a similar increase in output for April. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

03:03 EUR/USD consolidates as traders holder their breath ahead of tariffs
EUR/USD stuck to familiar levels on Tuesday, churning chart paper close to the 1.0800 handle as investors brace for US President Donald Trump’s long-threatened “reciprocal” tariffs package, due to be announced on Wednesday at 1900 GMT (4 pm EST).

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The exact details of President Trump’s ever-changing tariff proposals remain cloudy at best, and are due to change several times or even be outright delayed, as Donald Trump has already done on four separate occasions since taking office 71 days ago.Forex Today: It is all about “Liberation Day”The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the United States Trade Representative Office may be preparing a last-minute alternative tariff proposal to present to Donald Trump in an effort to alleviate and streamline a lopsided pile of tariff threats from the US President over the past 71 days. European inflation figures for March came in with little surprises on Tuesday. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March sank faster than expected, falling to 49.0 from 50.3 as businesses hunker down ahead of expected tariff announcements. Median market forecasts expected a print of 49.5 or better. The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index also fell sharply for the second month in a row, declining to a two-year low of 45.2. European economic data remains strictly mid-tier through the remainder of the trading week, however most traders will be busy juggling tariff reactions through Wednesday anyway. However, a fresh print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor figures are due this Friday. This NFP release could be a major datapoint for markets as the US economy heads into a post-tariff economic environment, with March’s labor data set to act as a “bellwether” for the impacts of the Trump team’s tariff plans. EUR/USD price forecast EUR/USD continues to trade in the middle of a technical trap, with buyers unable to take a firm leg higher, but short pressure too limited to push Fiber price action back under the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of the 1.0700 handle. EUR/USD snapped a near-term losing streak, pushing technical oscillators into oversold territory, but a continuation pattern remains unlikely as market participants focus on geopolitical factors. EUR/USD daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

02:57 RBA's Kent says will raise new OMO repo rate by 5bp to 10bp above cash rate target
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent late Tuesday outlined some changes to repo rates but stated that the changes have no implications for the stance of the bank's monetary policy.

02:57 Japan Monetary Base (YoY) fell from previous -1.8% to -3.1% in March
Japan Monetary Base (YoY) fell from previous -1.8% to -3.1% in March

02:29 Argentina Tax Revenue (MoM) fell from previous 13520.837B to 12733B in February
Argentina Tax Revenue (MoM) fell from previous 13520.837B to 12733B in February

02:27 US Treasury Sec. Bessent says Trump will announce a maximum for tariffs, countries can then bring them down
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Tuesday that the amounts announced on Wednesday are the highest the tariffs will go.

02:13 USD/CAD extends the decline below 1.4300 ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement
The USD/CAD pair extends the decline to around 1.4295 during the late American session on Tuesday.

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US manufacturing contracted in March, with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropping to 49.0 from 50.3 in February. This figure came in below the market expectation of 49.5. This comes as concerns mount about how much tariffs will raise prices for consumers and businesses.

Trump said that he will impose “reciprocal tariffs” on Wednesday, suggesting that many countries with their own duties on US goods could suddenly face new trade barriers. The White House stated that Trump’s forthcoming tariffs will take effect right after they are unveiled on Wednesday. However, the lack of clarity on trade policies, including the scope and severity of the tariffs and how they will be calculated, could undermine the Greenback in the near term.

Meanwhile, a rise in Crude Oil prices might underpin the commodity-linked Loonie in the near term and create a headwind for USD/CAD. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

02:07 GBP/USD holds flat as markets await tariffs
GBP/USD flatlined on Tuesday, churning just above the 1.2900 handle as investors buckle down for the wait to US President Donald Trump’s long-awaited tariff announcements slated for Wednesday evening.

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At 1900 GMT on Wednesday, President Trump is expected to unveil his “reciprocal” tariff package that he has been threatening since taking office on January 20.Forex Today: It is all about “Liberation Day”Economic data has taken a firm back seat in the face of geopolitical uncertainty from still ambiguous trade policies from the White House. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the United States Trade Representative Office may be preparing a last-minute alternative tariff proposal to present to Donald Trump in an effort to alleviate and streamline a lopsided pile of tariff threats from the US President over the past 71 days.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March sank faster than expected, falling to 49.0 from 50.3 as businesses hunker down ahead of expected tariff announcements. Median market forecasts expected a print of 49.5 or better. The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index also fell sharply for the second month in a row, declining to a two-year low of 45.2. The release schedule on the UK side of the economic data docket remains light this week, but a fresh print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor figures are due later this week. This NFP release could be a major datapoint for markets as the US economy heads into a post-tariff economic environment, with March’s labor data set to act as a “bellwether” for the impacts of the Trump team’s tariff plans. GBP/USD price forecast GBP/USD has chalked in a firm consolidation phase just below the 1.3000 handle. Pound traders remain unwilling to push bids any higher, and Greenback flows are also dominating most of the marketscape. However, Cable short pressure also remains limited. Bullish trendlines remain intact from January’s deep swing low at the 1.2100 price level, and momentum remains in favor of bidders as price action churns on the high side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2725. GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:00 South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (2%) in March
South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (2%) in March

02:00 South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in March
South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in March

01:51 Fed's Goolsbee: Hard data strong, soft data almost cratering
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said late Tuesday that US hard data are strong, but soft data are almost cratering.

01:47 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds after hammer, eyes on 200-day SMA breakout
The GBP/JPY begins Wednesday’s Asian session on a positive note, after posting losses of 0.22% on Tuesday, as investors grew risk-averse due to US trade policies.

01:26 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $34 as bearish wedge forms
Silver prices retreated for the second consecutive day this week, dropping approximately 1.20% on Tuesday and falling below the $34.00 mark.

01:21 United States Total Vehicle Sales: 17.8M (March) vs 16M
United States Total Vehicle Sales: 17.8M (March) vs 16M

00:52 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair rises near 0.5700, but bearish pressure still dominates
The NZD/USD pair showed modest bullish momentum on Tuesday’s session, climbing slightly and hovering around the 0.57 zone ahead of the Asian session.

NZD/USD trades near the 0.5700 zone after modest gains ahead of the Asian session.Despite short-term buy signals, broader trend remains bearish due to pressure from key moving averages.Support rests at 0.5692 while resistance lies around 0.5708–0.5718; 200-day SMA reinforces downside risks.The NZD/USD pair showed modest bullish momentum on Tuesday’s session, climbing slightly and hovering around the 0.57 zone ahead of the Asian session. Despite the upside move, the broader setup remains bearish as the price continues to be capped by long-term moving averages and oscillators still suggest underlying weakness. Daily chart The standard 14-period RSI stands at 46.01, offering a neutral outlook, while the Awesome Oscillator shows a slight bearish bias, remaining below zero. Bearish momentum is further highlighted by the behavior of key moving averages. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5736, 100-day SMA at 0.5724, and 200-day SMA at 0.5910 all suggest selling pressure is dominant. The 10-day EMA at 0.5721 and 30-day SMA at 0.5733 confirm that the pair is currently trading below important resistance zones. Immediate support is seen near 0.5692, with further downside targets around 0.5660 if sellers regain control. On the flip side, resistance is noted at 0.5700, followed by 0.5708 and 0.5718, where prior highs and moving averages converge. A sustained break above this area would be needed to shift the short-term bias toward the upside.

00:50 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) increased to 2.8% in March from previous 2.2%
Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) increased to 2.8% in March from previous 2.2%

00:48 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) up to 0.7% in March from previous -0.2%
Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) up to 0.7% in March from previous -0.2%

00:07 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair holds below 94.00 as bearish bias lingers despite mild recovery
The AUD/JPY pair is showing mild intraday movement during Tuesday’s session, trading just under the 94.00 mark ahead of the Asian opening.

AUD/JPY trades near the 93.90 zone after modest gains ahead of the Asian session.Bearish pressure persists as key moving averages flash sell despite neutral oscillators and a buy signal from MACD.Resistance stands near 93.90–94.00 while technical indicators show no immediate signs of oversold conditions.The AUD/JPY pair is showing mild intraday movement during Tuesday’s session, trading just under the 94.00 mark ahead of the Asian opening. Despite a slight daily gain, the broader setup remains bearish, as price continues to hover in the lower half of the recent range between 93.15 and 94.01. Momentum remains limited amid mixed signals from key technical indicators. Daily chart The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints a mild buy signal, hinting at some underlying support. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) remains neutral at 44.95, while the Ultimate Oscillator sits at 56.12—suggesting a lack of clear directional momentum. These readings point to indecision in the short term. On the trend front, most moving averages paint a bearish picture. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 94.20 and the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 94.29 both favor selling. The 20-day SMA at 94.03 joins the 100-day at 96.70 and 200-day at 98.57 in reinforcing downside risks. The neutral Ichimoku Base Line further confirms that the pair lacks clear conviction for a reversal. Looking at levels, resistance is stacked around 93.79, 93.91, and 94.02. If bullish momentum gains traction, a breakout above these areas may open the door for further recovery. On the downside, failure to hold above the 93.15–93.30 band could expose the pair to deeper losses, especially if sellers gain strength and the RSI slips toward oversold territory. Overall, while intraday momentum looks mildly constructive, the dominant bearish tone keeps rallies in check unless sustained buying clears overhead resistance levels with volume.

00:04 Australian Dollar steadies near 0.6270 after RBA decision, tariffs in focus
The AUD/USD pair hovered around the 0.6270 region during Tuesday’s American session, posting a moderate rebound following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy decision.

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The central bank, as widely expected, held its Official Cash Rate steady at 4.10% while opting not to offer explicit guidance on future moves. Despite the initial lift in the Aussie, the pair remains capped by technical resistance zones and broader market caution, especially as traders brace for United States (US) President Trump’s long-awaited tariff announcement. From a technical perspective, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flashes bearish continuation, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), although rising, remains below the neutral line. Daily digest market movers: AUD steadies after RBA, tariff risks cap gains The Australian Dollar pared back early-week losses and moved toward the 0.6270 region, attempting to stabilize after two days of declines. The RBA kept its benchmark rate unchanged and struck a neutral tone, with Governor Michele Bullock confirming the board hasn't committed to a May move. Risk sentiment remains fragile ahead of “Liberation Day,” when the White House is expected to unveil a broad tariff package targeting key trade partners. Fresh tariff threats weigh on global growth sentiment and, by extension, commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie. A slight improvement in China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI added some short-term support to AUD/USD. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy remains in focus, with markets ramping up bets on June rate cuts after soft ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS data. According to CFTC data, speculative bearish bets on AUD have reached multi-week highs, highlighting market skepticism around the Aussie’s outlook. Technical analysis From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair recovery remains constrained by a series of resistance levels, despite posting intraday gains. The MACD histogram continues to show fresh red bars, indicating lingering downside momentum, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index has bounced but still trades below the 50 threshold, signaling weak bullish strength. The Commodity Channel Index improved but remains in negative territory, suggesting only a tentative recovery. The pair remains trapped in the middle of the daily range between 0.6231 and 0.6282, unable to break out decisively. Several key moving averages—the 10-day EMA, 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs—are all aligned to the downside, underscoring the persistent bearish bias. Immediate support is noted around 0.6267, while upside resistance clusters near 0.6289 and 0.6290 and extends to 0.6292. Without a meaningful breakout, AUD/USD is likely to remain directionless in the near term, especially with traders holding back ahead of Wednesday’s US tariff announcement. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

00:03 US Trade Representative office possibly preparing a third tariff option for President Trump
According to reporting by the Wall Street Journal, policy writers at the Office of the US Trade Representative are scrambling to put together a third tariff option to present to US President Donald Trump at the 11th hour.

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23:40 US Dollar down as markets asses Trump's words The US Dollar Index (DXY) moved lower during Wednesday’s session, lingering near the 104.00 area after President Donald Trump confirmed sweeping tariffs on global imports.

23:37 USD/JPY trades volatile as Trump imposes 24% tariffs on Japan The USD/JPY trades volatily as US President Donald Trump announces reciprocal tariffs on Liberation Day, with duties being effective on April 3.

23:33 EUR/USD jumps to two-week highs on Trump tariff announcements EUR/USD lurched higher late Wednesday, tapping its highest bids in ten consecutive trading days after market sentiment reacted positively to better-than-expected tariff levels from the Trump administration.

23:23 Gold price seesaws above $3,100 as Trump announces tariffs Gold price tumbles and trades volatile within the $3,100 - $3135 as US President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs worldwide, with the details pending of being released.

22:41 Gold holds near all-time high, eyes on Trump’s tariff reveal Gold price extends its gains on Wednesday, remaining near all-time highs as market participants wait for US President Donald Trump's tariff plans at around 20:00 GMT.

21:44 Forex Today: The Services sector takes centre stage The Greenback traded on the back foot on Wednesday, receding markedly against the backdrop of increasing prudence ahead of President Trump’s announcements on reciprocal tariffs.

20:58 Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived.

20:53 Mexican Peso slips as traders await Trump’s Liberation Day The Mexican Peso (MXN) remains on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD), trading with losses of more than 0.50% as traders await US President Donald Trump's Liberation Day announcement later today.

19:00 Russia Unemployment Rate above forecasts (2.3%) in February: Actual (2.4%) Russia Unemployment Rate above forecasts (2.3%) in February: Actual (2.4%)

18:52 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls push pair near 1.0900 as bullish momentum strengthens EUR/USD extended its upward trajectory on Wednesday, rising toward the upper end of its recent range and was last seen near the 1.0900 zone following the European session.

18:26 GBP/USD climbs past 1.2950 as traders brace for Trump’s tariff announcement The Pound Sterling advances early during the North American session against the US Dollar as traders await US President Trump's tariff announcement, which could potentially spur a global economic slowdown.

17:49 USD/JPY trades cautiously around 149.50 with Trump’s tariffs on the horizon The USD/JPY pair trades with caution around 149.50 during North American trading hours on Wednesday.

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 6.165M, above expectations (-2M) in March 28 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 6.165M, above expectations (-2M) in March 28

17:15 USD/CAD edges higher to near 1.4330, Trump’s tariff announcement in focus The USD/CAD pair ticks higher to near 1.4330 in Wednesday’s North American session.

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) above forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.6%) United States Factory Orders (MoM) above forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.6%)

16:05 GBP off early session low – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is also quiet and extending is recent consolidation around 1.29 ahead of Wednesday’s US tariff announcement, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

16:04 Singapore Purchasing Managers Index: 50.6 (March) vs previous 50.7 Singapore Purchasing Managers Index: 50.6 (March) vs previous 50.7

16:03 EUR extends tight consolidation around 1.08 – Scotiabank Euro (EUR) is extending its tight consolidation around 1.08 ahead of Wednesday’s US tariff announcement, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

16:01 CAD is trading steady to slightly lower – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed—and a relative, if minor, underperformer versus many of its peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:59 USD edges lower ahead of tariff news – Scotiabank Welcome to Liberation Day. Tariffs are front and center for markets ahead of this afternoon’s announcement from the White House, due around 4pm from the Rose Garden, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:15 United States ADP Employment Change above forecasts (105K) in March: Actual (155K) United States ADP Employment Change above forecasts (105K) in March: Actual (155K)

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.5%, below expectations (2.3%) in February Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.5%, below expectations (2.3%) in February

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (-0.1%) Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (-0.1%)

14:50 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps to near $34 as Trump’s tariff plan improves safe-haven demand Silver price (XAG/USD) advances to near $34.00 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous -2% to -1.6% in March 28 United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous -2% to -1.6% in March 28

13:55 USD/CNH: Major resistance at 7.2980 is unlikely to come into view – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) could rise to 7.2880 before levelling off; the major resistance at 7.2980 is unlikely to come into view.

13:52 S&P 500: Next downward objectives are at 5400/5390pts and 5300pts – Societe Generale S&P 500 has so far defended the low of last down leg near 5500pts, which is also an ascending trend line connecting troughs of April 2024/August 2024, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

13:43 USD/CNH: Inability to hold 7.22 can lead to a deeper pullback – Societe Generale USD/CNH recently tested the 200-DMA at 7.22 resulting in a brief rebound, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

13:41 ECB's Schnabel: Trade fragmentation is structurally harmful for economic growth and inflation European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday that trade fragmentation is structurally harmful for economic growth and inflation, per Reuters.

13:21 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rallies to near 0.5750 The NZD/USD pair advances to near 0.5745 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

12:55 Norges Bank to stand pat for the time being – Commerzbank As we expected, Norges Bank left the policy rate unchanged last week. After all, the interest rate path from December did not necessarily imply an interest rate cut in March.

12:49 EUR/USD flattens as investors await Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy EUR/USD wobbles around 1.0800 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

12:43 Germany 10-y Bond Auction fell from previous 2.92% to 2.68% Germany 10-y Bond Auction fell from previous 2.92% to 2.68%

12:36 USD/JPY: Bias to sell rallies – OCBC USD/JPY remains caught in a 2-way trade between safe haven demand and JPY being directly hit by reciprocal tariffs. Pair was last at 149.60, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:31 USD: Tariff announcement at 10PM CET – ING The market reaction to today’s 'liberation day' will depend on the size of tariffs, geographical/sectorial distribution, and openness to negotiation. The announcement is due at 4PM ET/10PM CET, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

12:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:29 ECB’s Rehn: Trade protectionism is a key risk to economic outlook European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Wednesday, “trade protectionism is a key risk to economic outlook.”

12:26 Lagarde speech: Tariffs aren't good for the global economy European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned on Wednesday, “tariffs aren't good for the global economy.”

12:01 Liberation Day – but at what price? – Commerzbank The uncertainty that Trump's policy brings with it, through his many U-turns, his erratic statements and his cancellation of long-standing agreements and treaties.

12:00 AUD/USD climbs to fresh weekly top, retakes 0.6300 ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs The AUD/USD pair attracts some follow-through buyers for the second consecutive day and recovers further from a nearly four-week low, around the 0.6220-0.6215 area touched on Monday.

11:49 EUR/USD: Current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase – UOB Group Slight increase in downward momentum is likely to lead to a lower range of 1.0770/1.0820 instead of a sustained decline.

11:13 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:11 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session.

11:00 Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation up to 0.62% in March from previous 0.51% Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation up to 0.62% in March from previous 0.51%

10:58 Pound Sterling consolidates against US Dollar ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades sideways around 1.2900 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session.

10:17 Forex Today: It's all about Trump's tariff announcements on "Liberation Day" Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 2:

10:05 USD/CHF drifts higher to near 0.8850 amid looming Trump tariff The USD/CHF pair strengthens to around 0.8845 during the early European session on Wednesday.

10:01 Spain Unemployment Change came in at -13.311K below forecasts (-2.5K) in March Spain Unemployment Change came in at -13.311K below forecasts (-2.5K) in March

10:00 Spain Unemployment Change came in at -13.3K below forecasts (-2.5K) in March Spain Unemployment Change came in at -13.3K below forecasts (-2.5K) in March

09:48 EUR/INR today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

09:45 France Budget Balance registered at €-40.3B, below expectations (€-30.2B) in February France Budget Balance registered at €-40.3B, below expectations (€-30.2B) in February

09:10 EUR/USD holds positive ground near 1.0800 as traders brace for Trump’s tariff announcement The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.0790 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday.

09:06 India Gold price today: Gold stays hopeful ahead of Trump's tariff reveal Having touched a new record high in India on Tuesday, Gold price has entered a phase of upside consolidation early Wednesday.

08:52 FX option expiries for Apr 2 NY cut FX option expiries for Apr 2 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

08:01 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 58.1, above forecasts (57.6) in March India HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 58.1, above forecasts (57.6) in March

07:54 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps above $33.50 amid looming Trump tariff The Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers to around $33.85 during the early European session on Wednesday.

07:28 Gold price remains close to record high amid concerns over Trump’s reciprocal tariffs Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday and stalls the previous day's modest retracement slide from a fresh record high.

05:53 NZD/USD advances to fresh weekly top, around 0.5720-0.5725 region The NZD/USD pair gains strong follow-through positive traction for the second straight day and climbs to a fresh weekly high, around the 0.5720-0.5725 region during the Asian session on Wednesday.

05:44 USD/INR strengthens as Trump’s “Liberation Day” looms The Indian Rupee (INR) softens on Wednesday. The local currency retreats after logging its best monthly rise in over six years, driven by a weaker Greenback and renewed foreign inflows into equities.

05:24 Japanese Yen trades with negative bias against USD ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains against its American counterpart and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday.

04:35 BoJ's Ueda: US tariffs likely to push up US inflation Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that US tariffs are likely to push up US inflation in the near term but could weigh on US prices longer-term by slowing down US economic growth.

04:18 AUD/USD holds steady below 0.6300 as Trump prepares to unveil reciprocal tariffs The AUD/USD pair trades on a flat note near 0.6275 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1793 vs. 7.1775 previous On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1793 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1775 and 7.2663 Reuters estimate.

03:33 Australia Building Permits (YoY): 25.7% (February) vs 21.7% Australia Building Permits (YoY): 25.7% (February) vs 21.7%

03:30 Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at -0.3%, above expectations (-1.4%) in February Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at -0.3%, above expectations (-1.4%) in February

03:28 WTI remains capped below $71.00 as Trump’s tariffs loom West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.95 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

02:57 Japan Monetary Base (YoY) fell from previous -1.8% to -3.1% in March Japan Monetary Base (YoY) fell from previous -1.8% to -3.1% in March

02:29 Argentina Tax Revenue (MoM) fell from previous 13520.837B to 12733B in February Argentina Tax Revenue (MoM) fell from previous 13520.837B to 12733B in February

02:27 US Treasury Sec. Bessent says Trump will announce a maximum for tariffs, countries can then bring them down US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Tuesday that the amounts announced on Wednesday are the highest the tariffs will go.

02:13 USD/CAD extends the decline below 1.4300 ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement The USD/CAD pair extends the decline to around 1.4295 during the late American session on Tuesday.

02:07 GBP/USD holds flat as markets await tariffs GBP/USD flatlined on Tuesday, churning just above the 1.2900 handle as investors buckle down for the wait to US President Donald Trump’s long-awaited tariff announcements slated for Wednesday evening.

02:00 South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (2%) in March South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (2%) in March

02:00 South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in March South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in March

01:51 Fed's Goolsbee: Hard data strong, soft data almost cratering Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said late Tuesday that US hard data are strong, but soft data are almost cratering.

01:47 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds after hammer, eyes on 200-day SMA breakout The GBP/JPY begins Wednesday’s Asian session on a positive note, after posting losses of 0.22% on Tuesday, as investors grew risk-averse due to US trade policies.

01:26 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $34 as bearish wedge forms Silver prices retreated for the second consecutive day this week, dropping approximately 1.20% on Tuesday and falling below the $34.00 mark.

01:21 United States Total Vehicle Sales: 17.8M (March) vs 16M United States Total Vehicle Sales: 17.8M (March) vs 16M

00:52 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair rises near 0.5700, but bearish pressure still dominates The NZD/USD pair showed modest bullish momentum on Tuesday’s session, climbing slightly and hovering around the 0.57 zone ahead of the Asian session.

00:50 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) increased to 2.8% in March from previous 2.2% Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) increased to 2.8% in March from previous 2.2%